By PK Khup Hangzo
As 2025 unfolds, it’s clear that the climate crisis has reached a critical juncture. Record-breaking temperatures are setting the stage for another extraordinary year. January was the warmest on record, with global temperatures soaring 1.75°C above pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels. February followed as the third warmest, at 1.59°C above the pre-industrial average, while March joined the ranks of the hottest months, registering 1.55°C above the historical baseline. April is also poised to be one of the hottest. With the first quarter of 2025 already marking the second-warmest on record, it’s clear this year may rank among the top three hottest years ever, following closely behind 2024, which set the record at 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels. The trends are unmistakable: we are deep within the post-climate change era, where the impacts of global warming are not in the distant future, but unfolding right before our eyes.
Crossing a critical threshold
The year 2024 marked a sobering milestone in our climate trajectory: the global average temperature surpassed the 1.5°C threshold for the first time. This limit, once regarded as a critical boundary, was believed to be the point beyond which climate change would spiral into irreversible and catastrophic consequences. Now that we’ve crossed it, the impacts are no longer speculative – they are real and intensifying. For years, international efforts have been focused on keeping global temperatures below this 1.5°C threshold. These efforts have primarily focused on aggressive reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, which include phasing out fossil fuels and accelerating the transition to clean, renewable energy sources.
However, a 2024 report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) warns that even if every nation fulfills its climate pledges, global temperatures are still on track to rise by 2.6°C to 2.8°C by the end of the century. Such a rise would unleash catastrophic and irreversible consequences for ecosystems, economies, and communities worldwide. The report stresses the urgent need for drastic emissions reductions – 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035 – to have any chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C. Yet, the situation is becoming more dire. In 2023, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases hit record levels, with carbon dioxide reaching 151% of pre-industrial levels, and methane and nitrous oxide soaring to 265% and 125%, respectively. Preliminary data suggests these levels have continued to rise in 2024, making it increasingly unlikely that we will meet the necessary targets to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
The impact of climate change is here
In many ways, we are no longer anticipating the effects of climate change; we are living through them. Extreme weather events – heatwaves, extreme rainfall, flooding, droughts, and storms – have become more frequent, more severe, and more unpredictable. These are the “day-to-day” signs of a planet in distress, and they are no longer anomalies but the new normal. In Northeast India, one of the most pressing concerns is extreme rainfall. As the world warms, the atmosphere’s capacity to hold moisture increases – by about 7% for every 1°C rise in temperature. This extra moisture lingers in the atmosphere longer, extending dry spells. However, when the rains do come, they often arrive in intense, catastrophic bursts. A 2024 study published in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society found that, over the past three decades, monsoon rainfall in Northeast India has decreased, but extreme rainfall events have escalated significantly. The frequency of rainfall events exceeding 15 cm in a single day has quadrupled between 1950 and 2021 compared to earlier decades. Further research indicates that every 1°C of warming increases the density of major downpours by 15%, and this effect is even more pronounced at higher altitudes. This is deeply concerning for the Himalayan hill states, including those in Northeast India.
The rising toll of extreme rainfall
Extreme rainfall has already caused devastating harm to the people and environment of Northeast India. Assam, one of the most flood-prone states in India, experiences multiple waves of flooding each year due to extreme rainfall. Nearly 40% of the state’s land area – around 31,050 square kilometers – is vulnerable to flooding annually, causing widespread displacement, crop destruction, and infrastructure damage. Alongside flooding, landslides triggered by heavy rainfall have wreaked havoc across much of Northeast India, including Meghalaya, Mizoram, Manipur, and Nagaland. These landslides have blocked roads, isolated villages, and, tragically, claimed numerous lives. These landslides also contribute to soil erosion on fragile slopes, degrading fertile land and jeopardizing food security for rural communities. The combined impacts of floods, landslides, and soil erosion are undermining the ecological balance and the resilience of communities in the region. These climate-induced disasters are more than just environmental concerns; they intersect with Northeast India’s complex security dynamics. While climate change may not directly cause conflict, it exacerbates existing vulnerabilities – deepening inequalities, straining resources, and fueling grievances. This, in turn, could increase the risk of unrest and instability.
The urgency of climate adaptation
With climate change now an inescapable reality, governments in Northeast India must prioritize climate adaptation as a matter of urgency. The longer adaptation efforts are delayed, the more difficult, costly, and disruptive it will become to manage the escalating impacts of climate change. Adaptation is no longer a future option – it is a present necessity. At the heart of this adaptation effort must be a radical rethink of how infrastructure is designed, built, and maintained. Whether it’s roads, bridges, housing, or public utilities, all infrastructure must be resilient to the growing threats of climate change. This means designing structures that can withstand intense rainfall, frequent flooding, and the increasing likelihood of landslides. For example, it may involve using durable materials, elevating roads and bridges, reinforcing slopes, and improving drainage systems. In high-risk areas, relocating critical facilities may also be necessary.
But adaptation is not just about upgrading physical infrastructure. It also requires embracing nature-based solutions. Investments in reforestation, wetland restoration, and watershed management can complement traditional infrastructure, acting as natural buffers that help mitigate the impact of floods and landslides. Furthermore, urban planning must incorporate climate risk assessments to avoid creating new vulnerabilities. The cost of inaction is far greater than the investment required for proactive adaptation today. Integrating climate resilience into infrastructure planning is not just about protecting physical assets; it is about safeguarding lives, livelihoods, and the long-term future of Northeast India. We must act now, before the escalating costs of climate change make adaptation too difficult, too expensive, and too late.
(The writer is an Associate Fellow at the Vivekananda International Foundation, New Delhi, one of India’s leading national security think tanks)
