After the crest, the trough is inevitable. For two years India saw surplus rainfall. Now the India Meteorological Department warns of a significant shortfall in the coming monsoon. Its April forecast predicts an 8% deficit, or “below normal” rainfall, for June to September. There is a 5% margin of error, but IMD’s track record shows it rarely overstates a drought. More often it expects a normal monsoon only for India to end up with a deficit. When IMD warns of a shortfall in April, history shows the country often faces a drought. The agency never uses the term drought. It calls a deficit below 90% “deficient.” In April 2015, IMD forecast 93% of the long period average, calling it below normal. India ended up at 86%.
This year the concern is the second half of the monsoon. IMD expects August and September to be depressed because weather models point to an El Niño. Since 1950, nine out of 16 El Niño years have coincided with a deficient monsoon. The timing matters. If the Pacific heating peaks outside the monsoon months, the impact is weaker. In 2019, IMD expected below normal rain because El Niño-like conditions were building. But the heating was mild and India finished with above normal rainfall. For 2026, IMD says the Indian Ocean Dipole may counter El Niño’s drying effect. Yet with war-like clouds over West Asia, any shortage of gas and fertiliser could hit farmers already facing weak rains. Preparations must start now. Fertiliser stocks need to be shored up. Water in stressed reservoirs must be distributed equitably. Timely advisories on sowing are critical.
Meghalaya sits inside this larger weather picture, but with its own sharper edges. IMD’s April to June 2026 outlook for the state projects above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall. Maximum temperatures are likely to be normal to above normal across most of Meghalaya. Minimum temperatures too are expected to remain above normal. For April 2026, both day and night temperatures are forecast to stay above normal over many parts of the state. Despite the heat, no heatwave days are likely during the three months. The bigger worry is rain. The outlook says rainfall over much of the Northeast, including Meghalaya, is likely to be below normal. Warmer days and nights will increase thermal discomfort, especially during dry spells. Below normal rain has direct implications for water availability and agriculture in rain-dependent areas.
The forecast is based on neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation conditions over the equatorial Pacific. The Indian Ocean Dipole is also expected to remain neutral. That means no strong large-scale driver to boost rainfall over the region this season. Against this backdrop, Meghalaya is coming off record heat. IMD reported that 2025 was the hottest year in recorded history for the state, with an anomaly of +0.955 degrees Celsius. The next hottest years were 2023 at +0.904°C, 2024 at +0.803°C, 2021 at +0.735°C, and 2022 at +0.605°C. The first days of April 2026 have already been significantly warmer than March, when unusually wet weather kept temperatures down.
Put together, the national and state forecasts demand early action. A below normal monsoon across India will tighten food and water systems. For Meghalaya, the combination of above normal heat and below normal rain raises three immediate risks. First, drinking water sources in upland villages could deplete faster if pre-monsoon showers stay weak. Second, spring paddy nurseries and maize sowing that depend on April and May rain may face moisture stress. Third, higher night temperatures reduce crop recovery time and raise power demand for cooling in urban Shillong and Tura. None of these are new, but the frequency of warm years is. Four of Meghalaya’s five hottest years have come since 2021.
Policy cannot wait for July. District administrations should map villages with single-source springs and line up tankers. The agriculture department must push short-duration and less water-intensive varieties, and issue weekly soil-moisture bulletins. Power utilities should plan for evening load spikes. At the household level, simple steps like mulching, rainwater harvesting, and scheduling farm work for cooler hours will matter more than usual. On the national front, the state must coordinate with the Centre to ensure fertiliser rakes reach before roads are hit by pre-monsoon landslides.
A forecast is not fate. El Niño can weaken. The IOD can turn positive. But planning for the likely scenario is the cheaper option. Meghalaya has managed drought-like patches before, yet back-to-back warm years test resilience. With temperatures rising and rain uncertain, the state needs to treat April as the start of a long dry watch, not the end of a cool spell.
