Prime Minister Narendra Modi and visiting Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu on October 7 held comprehensive talks on various issues regarding the two neighbours. Muizzu’s second trip to India in four months highlights a significant diplomatic shift as he now seeks to navigate the complex relations with India. Muizzu, who took power last year, previously backed an “India Out” campaign in the Maldives and opposed India’s significant influence in the Maldives. His call for the withdrawal of approximately 80 Indian military personnel managing two rescue helicopters and a Dornier aircraft was met in May when India replaced military staff with civilian technical personnel.
A month later, he attended the swearing-in ceremony of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who assumed office for a third consecutive term. Breaking with tradition, Muizzu did not make India his first state visit after assuming the presidency, signalling a clear shift in his foreign policy. Meanwhile, his increasing alignment with China had further complicated relations. Earlier this year, the Maldives permitted the Chinese research vessel Xiang Yang Hong 3 — perceived as a surveillance ship — to dock in its waters, raising Indian concerns about potential data collection by Chinese to support submarine operations in the region.
Relations between the Maldives and India reached a nadir when a ‘Boycott Maldives’ campaign emerged on Indian social media following derogatory remarks made by three Maldivian ministers about Prime Minister Modi. Although these ministers were swiftly suspended, the incident significantly reduced Indian tourist numbers in the Maldives. Concurrently, Muizzu visited China and signed 20 agreements that elevated bilateral ties to a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership, including a military assistance pact viewed as detrimental to India’s strategic interests.
It is apparent that ideological and rhetorical considerations frequently take a backseat in realpolitiks, especially in the face of deteriorating economic conditions. Presently, the Maldives is facing a significant fiscal crisis, characterised by huge external public debt. Its foreign exchange reserves have dwindled and are sufficient to cover only about one and a half months of imports. Maldives is trying to avert a scenario reminiscent of that experienced by Sri Lanka. In May, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) flagged the Maldives for its elevated risk of debt distress and recommended comprehensive policy reforms.
Now the relationship between the Maldives and India appears to be evolving towards reconciliation and enhanced cooperation. During the ongoing visit, Muizzu is expected to seek arrangements for currency swaps and debt restructuring. The two neighbouring countries have also decided to discuss the Free Trade Agreement including ties on a range of areas including development partnership, and defence cooperation. It is apparent that President Muizzu, motivated by pressing economic considerations, is actively seeking to restore and strengthen diplomatic ties with India. The Maldivian President would do well to prioritise regional relations over rhetorical gains.
