The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is predicted to win the Bihar assembly elections, according to exit polls released soon after the conclusion of the final phase of polling in the state. The second and final phase of polling in Bihar recorded a historic voter turnout of 68.76 per cent, the highest in the state’s electoral history. It broke the record set during the first phase, when 65.08 per cent of votes had been cast, which was previously considered the highest voter turnout.
A majority of the exit polls have predicted a tight contest in the Bihar assembly elections, giving the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) a slight edge over the opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB). According to a survey released on Wednesday, NDA is projected to secure 43% of the vote share, just two percentage points ahead of the MGB’s 41%. The poll also indicates that Tejashwi Yadav—the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader and Mahagathbandhan’s chief ministerial face—is the most preferred candidate for chief minister, ahead of incumbent Nitish Kumar.
The Bihar Assembly election is considered a highly competitive battle. While the NDA faces deeper structural challenges on the ground there is strong anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar. The NDA can bask on stability with the support of the upper castes and older voters but at its vulnerability is its inability to convince the youth unlike MGB’s Tejashwi Yadav who political pundits say appears to have the potential to outperform poll predictions if voter anger translates into turnout.
Nevertheless, exit polls are snapshots, not guarantees. In the last two assembly elections, the exit polls failed to project an accurate picture. In 2015, the pollsters underestimated the victory of the MGB, whereas in 2020, they went totally wrong in predicting the National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA) loss.
Exit poll projections are made by election survey agencies based on surveys of sample groups spread across constituencies. The agencies interview voters as they leave polling stations after casting their votes. Considered an integral part of the Indian political landscape, exit polls continue to grab attention yet are not consistently accurate. The 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha predictions missed the scale of the actual results.
According to the Election Commission of India (ECI), 45,399 polling stations were made for 122 constituencies in the second phase of the Bihar Election. About 90,000 polling booths were created for the Bihar Elections. In these, voters are from varied backgrounds and different age groups. Most would hesitate to reveal his/her vote lest it might invite trouble or being identified and retaliated against and punished for voting for a particular party or a candidate. Exit polls are guesses; good to keep anxious candidates and politically-charged voters pass time before the real result is out.
