The Constitution (One Hundred and Twenty Eighth Amendment) Bill, 2023 also known as the Women’s Reservation Bill that seeks to provide 33 per cent quota for women in Lok Sabha and state assemblies was introduced in the Lok Sabha on September 19 in the ongoing special session of Parliament. The bill that has been hanging for nearly three decades proposed that the reservation of women would continue for a period of 15 years and there would be a quota for SC and STs within the reserved seats for women. However, it looks like the legislation is unlikely to be implemented in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. It will be rolled out only after the delimitation process is over, most probably in 2029.
The reservation will come into effect after a delimitation exercise is undertaken and will continue for 15 years. Seats reserved for women will be rotated after each delimitation exercise, according to the bill. Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his first speech in the new parliament building said that there had been several efforts to introduce the women’s reservation bill in the Lok Sabha and state legislative assemblies since 1996. He said that the union cabinet had decided to give a go-ahead to the reservation of women bill in the Parliament. “This historic day of 19th September 2023 is going to be immortalised in the history of India,” Modi said. But is this just another headline management stunt by the Modi government?
The state assemblies need to effect separate legislation before the Women’s Reservation Bill becomes a reality. But what is important to note is that Clause 334-A of the bill says the reservation would come into effect post the first census after the bill becomes law and the delimitation based upon that census. Will the census and delimitation be done before the 2024 elections? The Modi government has not yet conducted the 2021 decadal census making India the only country in G20 that has failed to carry out the census. Now it says that the reservation for women will come into effect only following the first decadal census conducted after the Women’s Reservation Bill has become an Act. When will this census take place?
The census due in 2021 has still not been held. The last census was held in 2011. So the earliest women’s reservation will become a reality in parliament and state legislative assemblies will be in 2029 or even later. As per the 91st Amendment to the Constitution, delimitation of constituencies cannot occur before 2026. This implies that it is impossible for the Women’s Reservation Bill to be put in place or to be implemented for the 2024 elections. Through delimitation, the government may be envisaging an increase in the number of Lok Sabha seats. This has also raised concerns about the unequal representation of states in the Lok Sabha. The southern states are already protesting the shrinking of their political influence.
