The 28th Conference of Parties (COP 28) for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is underway in Dubai, UAE, between November 30 and December 12, 2023. The importance of acknowledging this moment cannot be overstated, as life on Earth finds itself in uncharted territory, possibly facing the warmest temperatures in the past 100,000 years.
That global daily mean temperatures, which had never exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels before 2000, did so repeatedly this year is a cause for concern. Finally, the temperatures breached the 2°C threshold last week, occurring twice—first on November 17 and then again on November 18, 2023. Although the breach was temporary, the rapid pace of change has shocked scientists. Governments find themselves unprepared as extreme weather events, from heat waves to floods, droughts, and forest fires, wreak havoc around the globe.
The extreme changes to the climate that the world is experiencing today can be attributed to the historical cumulative global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The rich and developed countries, who have repeatedly reneged on their promises and pledges made at COPs, are responsible for this situation. These commitments include efforts to curtail their fossil fuel emissions, deliver climate finance, and assist developing countries in coping with climate impacts and transitioning to low-carbon economies.
To note, greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, reaching a new record of 57.4 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e), marking a 1.2 per cent increase from 2021 to 2022. According to a recent UNEP report, governments are currently planning to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be possible in a pathway consistent with limiting warming to well below 2°C.
To highlight, it’s not just governments to blame for the escalating carbon emissions. According to The Great Carbon Divide, a new Oxfam report, the richest 1 per cent of humanity surpasses the responsibility for carbon emissions compared to the poorest 66 per cent. This elite group, comprising 77 million people, including billionaires, millionaires, and those earning more than US$140,000 (Rs.11,665,454) annually, contributed to 16 per cent of all CO2 emissions in 2019. This amount is substantial enough to cause over a million excess deaths due to heat.
Over the period from 1990 to 2019, the accumulated emissions of the top 1 per cent equated to erasing last year’s harvests of EU corn, US wheat, Bangladeshi rice, and Chinese soya beans. The report reveals that it would take about 1,500 years for someone in the bottom 99 per cent to produce as much carbon as the richest billionaires do in a single year.
The increasing scepticism about the ability of the UN-led climate jamborees to deliver on its agenda has grown into a massive controversy this year. The reason being, COP28 is headed by Sultan Al Jaber, CEO of a fossil fuel company. Throughout the journey from the Kyoto Protocol to the Paris Agreement, there exists a long history of concerted efforts by rich countries and corporations, especially fossil fuel-producing nations and oil and gas companies. These efforts aim to delay and derail any actions on emission reduction.
The USA, for instance, stands out as the biggest climate villain, opposing equity, blocking negotiations, and lagging in climate action. Despite constituting only 4 per cent of the current world population, it has contributed 17 per cent of global warming from 1850 to 2021. In contrast, India, accounting for 18 per cent of the world population, has contributed only 5 per cent of warming. Remarkably, India is miles and gigawatts ahead of the USA in its climate commitments.
The truth is that the ferocity of climate events in 2023 cannot be ignored. The clamor for climate justice by frontline communities cannot be disregarded, and the lack of climate action by a few rich countries cannot be overlooked.
To go beyond ensuring the delivery of its procedural remit, COP 28 must engage in tasks such as the Global Stocktake to assess countries’ progress with their Paris Agreement commitments. Additionally, it needs to adopt a framework for the Global Goal on Adaptation, define a New Collective Quantified Goal, and operationalise the Loss and Damage Fund.
The success of COP28 under Sultan Al Jaber, however, will not be measured by its procedural outcomes. Instead, it hinges on whether he can deliver on two key issues — drastic reduction in emission reduction by phasing out fossil fuels, as demanded by 80 countries at COP27 and more importantly, ensuring the delivery of adequate and timely climate finance, the great enabler of climate action.
The question on everyone’s mind ahead of COP28 is – can Sultan Al Jaber get the richest individuals, countries, and corporations to bring an end to the twin crises of climate breakdown and inequality? The answer is most likely no, but he can certainly start by adding a few billion USD into the Loss and Damage funding facility to help poor nations and vulnerable people cope with the unfolding climate disasters.
(The writer can be reached at dipaknewslive@gmail.com)
