The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government marks a significant and turbulent chapter in the nation’s history, encapsulating over a decade of conflict, political intrigue, and shifting alliances. Since the onset of Syria’s civil war in 2011, Assad’s regime, propped up by support from Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, and other regional allies, has fought fiercely to maintain control. However, as the rebel forces have seized Damascus and other strategic cities, the situation has irrevocably changed, setting Syria on a new, uncertain trajectory.
Assad’s rule, once seen as a potential beacon of reform during his early days in office, devolved into a brutal dictatorship. After taking over the presidency in 2000 following the death of his father, Hafez al-Assad, Bashar was initially perceived as a moderniser and reformist. This image starkly contrasted with the iron-fisted rule of his father, who had governed Syria for three decades. Yet, the promise of reform quickly eroded when pro-democracy protests erupted in 2011 as part of the Arab Spring. Assad resorted to his father’s repressive tactics, unleashing military force to suppress dissent and plunging the nation into a prolonged and bloody civil war. Over the years, his regime’s use of heavy artillery, chemical weapons, and aerial bombardments to quash opposition tarnished his international image and eroded his domestic support.
The collapse of Assad’s government unfolded rapidly in December 2024. Within ten days of rebel forces gaining control over Aleppo, Hama, and Homs, they captured the capital, Damascus, on December 8. Assad, along with his wife and three children, fled Syria before the rebel forces could apprehend him, seeking asylum in Moscow. This marked a dramatic end to his reign, which had persisted through years of international isolation, economic sanctions, and internal strife. The loss of his younger brother — initially groomed as the family’s political successor — in a road accident years earlier only added to Assad’s challenges. His ascent to power had been an unexpected turn of events, but his eventual downfall seemed to mirror the fate of other authoritarian leaders swept away by waves of popular resistance.
The civil war, however, has left Syria deeply fragmented, and the fall of Assad’s regime does not necessarily promise peace or stability. The rebel forces now in control are themselves divided along ideological, ethnic, and regional lines. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Sunni Islamist militant group designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, the United Kingdom, and the United Nations, played a pivotal role in the capture of Damascus. The group’s leader, Abu Mohammad al-Golani, has announced plans to form a transitional government in cooperation with former Assad officials, but this initiative faces significant obstacles. Rebel groups backed by Turkiye and Kurdish militias supported by the United States harbor deep mistrust of HTS, further complicating the prospects for a unified post-Assad government.
The geopolitical landscape surrounding Syria also remains volatile. Russia and Iran, Assad’s principal allies, have suffered considerable setbacks. Russia, preoccupied with its ongoing conflict in Ukraine, had already reduced its military presence in Syria. The war in Ukraine has drained Russian resources and manpower, forcing Moscow to scale back its commitments to other theaters. Iran, meanwhile, finds itself overstretched. The collapse of Assad’s regime has weakened Tehran’s influence in the region, further exacerbated by setbacks suffered by its proxies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon. The fall of Damascus also marks a significant blow to the so-called “Axis of Resistance,” a coalition of Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah united against the United States and Israel. Iran’s domestic challenges, including ongoing protests for women’s rights and political reforms, compound its difficulties, raising questions about the regime’s stability.
The situation in Syria has further escalated tensions in West Asia, particularly in the aftermath of Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s retaliatory strikes on Gaza. Iran-backed groups such as Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen, already strained by their involvement in these broader conflicts, have struggled to provide meaningful support to Assad’s regime. Israeli airstrikes on Syrian targets, alongside those by the United States and Turkiye, reflect the competing interests of these nations in the region. As Sunni Islamist groups gain dominance in post-Assad Syria, the sectarian divide between Sunni and Shia populations could fuel further instability, with Shia-majority Iran becoming increasingly vulnerable to external pressures.
Domestically, Syria faces a monumental task in rebuilding not just its physical infrastructure but also its political and social fabric. The rebel factions must overcome deep-seated rivalries to establish a functioning government. Sunni Muslims, who make up 74 per cent of the population, are now poised to dominate the political landscape, but this raises concerns about the treatment of minority groups, including the Alawites and Shias who had aligned with Assad’s regime. The shrine of Sayyeda Zainab in southern Damascus, a site of immense religious significance for Shia Muslims, could become a flashpoint for sectarian conflict. Efforts by Shias from Iran, Iraq, and Pakistan to secure the shrine underscore its symbolic importance and the potential for further violence.
The international community remains divided on how to approach Syria’s transition. While the UK has hinted at the possibility of lifting its designation of HTS as a terrorist organisation if the group commits to protecting minority rights, such moves are fraught with controversy. The United States maintains a small military presence in northeastern Syria, ostensibly to combat ISIS, but its broader aim of regime change has now come to fruition with Assad’s departure. Turkiye, grappling with the challenge of hosting three million Syrian refugees, continues to exert influence over rebel groups it has backed, though its relations with HTS remain strained.
The immediate aftermath of Assad’s fall has been chaotic. The first day following the rebel takeover saw widespread looting, prison breaks, and disorder in Damascus and other cities. By the second day, however, some semblance of normalcy began to return, with the imposition of curfews and efforts to restore order. The rebel leadership faces the immense challenge of transitioning from a wartime coalition to a stable governing authority. Al-Golani’s pledge to hold accountable those responsible for atrocities under Assad’s regime signals an intent to address past injustices, but whether this will lead to genuine reconciliation remains uncertain.
In conclusion, Syria’s future hangs in the balance as it embarks on a difficult journey toward rebuilding and reconciliation. The fall of Assad’s government marks the end of an era, but the road ahead is fraught with challenges. The fragmented nature of the rebel coalition, ongoing regional conflicts, and deep-seated sectarian tensions threaten to derail efforts to establish a stable and inclusive government. As international actors navigate their roles in post-Assad Syria, the nation’s transition to democracy will depend on the ability of its diverse factions to overcome their differences and work toward a common vision for the country’s future. Whether Syria can achieve this remains to be seen, but the stakes could not be higher for its people and the region at large.
(The writer can be reached at dipakkurmiglpltd@gmail.com)
