Meghalaya and the rest of the North East are likely to see normal to below-normal maximum temperatures during the upcoming hot weather season from March to May.
This was stated by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its report titled ‘Outlook for the Seasonal Temperatures During the Hot Weather Season (March to May) and Monthly Rainfall and Temperatures During March: 2024’.
“During the upcoming hot weather season (March to May), above-normal maximum temperatures are most likely over most parts of the country, except over some isolated areas of Northwest, Northeast, Central and Peninsular India where normal to below-normal maximum temperatures are most likely,” the IMD said adding that during the season, above-normal minimum temperatures are most likely over most parts of the country.
“Monthly maximum temperatures for March 2024 are most likely to be above normal over most areas of Peninsula, Northeast and West Central India and many areas of North west India. On the other hand, normal to below normal maximum temperatures are most likely over most parts of East and Eastcentral India and some parts of Northwest India. Above normal monthly (March 2024) minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except some isolated areas along the Himalayas where normal to below normal minimum temperatures are most likely,” the IMD said.
During March and May 2024, above-normal number of heat wave days is likely over most parts of the country except over North East India, Western Himalayan Region, Southwest Peninsula and West coast. However, during March, 2024, above-normal heat wave days are likely over most areas of northeast Peninsular India, many areas of Maharashtra and some areas of Odisha and adjoining areas.
The IMD also said that rainfall during March 2024 averaged over the country as a whole is most likely to be above normal (>117% of LPA).
“Normal to above-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of the country except over extreme southeastern areas of South Peninsula and some areas of North East and extreme Northwest India where below-normal rainfall is likely,” it said.
Since 2016, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) has been issuing seasonal forecast outlooks for temperatures over the country for both the hot and cold weather seasons. IMD also continuously works to improve the skill of forecasting models. The current strategy is based on the newly developed Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) based forecasting system. The MME approach uses the coupled global climate models (CGCMs) from different global climate prediction and research centers including IMD/MoES Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) model.
