There has been a Dalai Lama in Tibetan Buddhism for centuries. Now, the institution is approaching a challenging period, perhaps the most challenging in its long life.
On Wednesday the 14th Dalai Lama, who is celebrating his 90th birthday this week, confirmed he will have a successor, putting to rest speculation over whether the 600-year-old institution will end when he dies.
In a video message keenly-awaited by his followers, he said only the Gaden Phodrang Trust that he founded in 2015 could appoint his successor and “no-one else has any authority to interfere in this matter”.
This was clearly a line aimed at China.
The Chinese Communist Party has been antagonistic towards the current Dalai Lama for decades. It has been oppressing and persecuting the Tibetan people for all that time and is not likely to stop. However, while officially atheist, it still sees huge benefit in being able to control powerful figures in Tibetan Buddhism, such as the Dalai Lama and other lamas.
According to tradition, Dalai Lamas are reincarnated after they die. China annexed Tibet in 1950 and the current Dalai Lama lives in exile in India, making succession a highly contentious issue.
Beijing rejected Wednesday’s statement, saying the 14th Dalai Lama’s successor would be from inside China and must be approved by the government. This argument is based on historical precedent. How much control and influence the Chinese government had on Tibet is disputed between the two sides but the link has been a persistent one that has survived the changing Chinese imperial dynasties, the chaotic 19th century, anarchy, civil war and invasion of China by foreign forces. Until the Communists seized power in 1949, China was facing a long period of decline during which its writ barely carried any weight in Lhasa. That all changed in 1950 when the Communists invaded Tibet, then suppressed an uprising in 1959 (which led to the Dalai Lama going into exile in India), ramped up their persecution of the Tibetans and encouraged mass migration of ethnic Han Chinese to gradually outnumber the indigenous Tibetans.
A possible foretaste of what is to come was seen almost exactly 30 years ago. The 10th Panchen Lama died in 1989 and the Tibetan government-in-exile and Chinese government led separate searches for his reincarnation. In 1995 the Tibetan side announced the name of the 11th Panchan Lama approved by the Dalai Lama. He and his family were swiftly taken into custody by the Chinese government and never seen again. Beijing then appointed its own candidate.
The interference of temporal rulers in the spiritual realm is, of course, quite common. Historically, powerful European countries would lobby hard (and even violently) to have their choice appointed as Pope of the Roman Catholic Church.
The difference in the case of Tibetan Buddhism is the matter of reincarnation. The death of the Dalai Lama could be followed by years of searching for his successor. Even after being confirmed, the successor will still only be a child and will have to undergo years of training before being able to take on the full role of spiritual leader. This delay will almost certainly play into the hands of the Chinese.
The Tibetan cause will also suffer simply because the current Dalai Lama is so popular and well-known. His personal charm, wisdom and approachability have made him a recognisable figure globally. His will be difficult shoes to step into.
