The true significance of the 2024 mandate was vividly described by a Congress leader from Bihar, who compared it to a fencing match between the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the INDIA bloc. According to him, the Opposition’s maneuvering in this political duel has effectively damaged the NDA’s position. He metaphorically stated that the INDIA bloc has managed to rip the lace of the NDA’s pyjamas, severely hampering its ability to continue the fight.
Should Prime Minister Narendra Modi focus solely on swordsmanship to defeat his opponent, he risks facing immense embarrassment if his pyjamas were to give way during the battle? The leader remarked that, whether the Prime Minister likes it or not, he will spend the next five years preoccupied with holding up his pyjamas to avoid embarrassment and disaster. There is no alternative, he emphasised. The Prime Minister will have to neglect the sword, because otherwise. According to an unnamed leader, the supreme leader will inevitably take some time to grasp the full meaning of the mandate. By the time he understands it, his immediate reaction will be to hold up his pajamas.
Currently, that’s the situation on the ground. RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat, who has been practically inactive like Rip Van Winkle for the past decade, has abruptly recognised numerous issues within the republic, particularly with its leaders. Arrogance was not anticipated from the faithful. It’s not just arrogance at play here; there’s also the systematic development of a personality cult, which starkly opposes the principles of the Sangh. Nonetheless, the RSS chief has refrained from stating this outright.
As Mohan Bhagwat emerges as a new “Anna Hazare,” Mr. Modi is slowly coming to the realisation that he is neither a messiah nor a “Vishwa Guru.” How can anyone reprimand a “Vishwa Guru,” especially so publicly? Yet, this is precisely the intention. Bhagwat deserves credit for delivering a powerful shock in a subtle manner. For Mr. Modi, the timing of the RSS chief ending his “Mauni Baba” silence couldn’t be worse. The Prime Minister hasn’t had a moment to catch his breath following the BJP’s less-than-stellar performance. Following the 2019 general election, where the BJP, led by Mr. Modi, won 303 Lok Sabha seats on the wave of the Pulwama attack and the Balakot airstrikes, it was humorously remarked that the RSS chief would now require the highest security. This was a subtle suggestion that Mr. Modi’s victory would further diminish the influence of the RSS and its leader.
It’s clear that the Sangh was biding its time for the right moment. J P Nadda’s remark during the election campaign that the BJP didn’t require the Sangh’s active support had already set off alarm bells within the organisation. Interestingly, the RSS chief has been notably keen to remind those in power that arrogance isn’t a wise approach for any public servant, particularly not for the country’s foremost leader. Even Prashant Kishor, who faced criticism for predicting a comfortable BJP majority under Mr. Modi, has shifted his stance. Mr. Modi could face challenges if the BJP fails to secure victories in at least two out of the upcoming state elections. Maharashtra, Haryana, and Jharkhand will hold Assembly polls by the end of the year, with Delhi following in the new year.
Troubles seem to be mounting for the PM, reminiscent of the proverbial downpour. Once fervently proclaimed by his supporters as “Modi Hai to Mumkin Hai,” the PM now appears determined to convey that everything remains unchanged, despite the shift from a Modi-centric to an NDA-led government. While Nitish Kumar may display deference towards the PM, his staunch secular credentials pose a challenge for the BJP in advancing its Hindutva agenda and controversial initiatives like the Uniform Civil Code. Even Nitish Kumar’s most vocal critics in Bihar acknowledge his unwavering commitment to secularism.
Nara Chandrababu Naidu shares similarities with Nitish Kumar but doesn’t align as zealously. Naidu has learned from past experiences that minority sentiments can significantly impact his political fortunes. At 74, his efforts to secure a political future for his son, Nara Lokesh, could make him a reliable ally to some extent. However, the BJP must also address his grievances against Y S R Jaganmohan Reddy. The YSRCP chief, with 15 MPs (4 in Lok Sabha and 11 in Rajya Sabha), reminds the BJP not to underestimate his influence when every vote counts in sensitive situations. Mr. Naidu observes the situation in neighboring Telangana, where any form of alliance with the BJP has proven detrimental to former Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao, as the TRS is slowly losing its grip.
The upcoming first Parliament session since the Lok Sabha polls is anticipated to usher in a new reality for the PM sooner rather than later. Key figures across the Opposition spectrum are poised to establish a formidable presence both inside and outside Parliament, aiming to counter those who have disrupted the established norms of the world’s largest democracy over the past decade. Within the BJP, figures such as Yogi Adityanath, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, and Nitin Gadkari are vying for prominence. With Mr. Modi’s influence diminishing, there’s a growing possibility that the RSS might assert its authority decisively, potentially ushering in a new BJP leader less aligned with the PM’s preferences. This shift could mark the end of Modi’s dominance within the party.
The INDIA coalition must capitalise on opportunities like Gundappa Vishwanath’s precise late cuts, exploiting the challenges posed by Mohan Bhagwat and allies, while setting aside internal disagreements. Mr. Modi has struggled to navigate a strong and united Opposition, which has significantly constrained his flexibility. The current mandate has also subjected him to scrutiny and challenges. To counter this, Rahul Gandhi and other leaders should consider tempering their rhetoric and refraining from targeting the RSS, at least for now. If the INDIA coalition remains cohesive and strategic, it won’t be long before the “Vishwa Guru” realises that his vision of an Opposition-free India has faltered, leaving him exposed and vulnerable.
(The writer can be reached at dipakkurmiglpltd@gmail.com)
