It’s been a couple of remarkable days for Ukraine in its defensive fight against Russian aggression.
Sunday’s attack has been described by many commentators as audacious and justifiably so, with the multiple drone attack on Russian airbases across the vast country a stunning success.
And, although not on the same scale, Ukraine was then able to conduct an underwater attack on Tuesday on the Kerch bridge that connects the Russian mainland to Crimea, which the Russians had illegally seized in 2014.
These twin attacks demonstrate that Ukraine, which is firmly on the back foot when it comes to the conventional ground war where it is consistently losing territory to the Russian bear, still has capabilities far in excess of what is conceivable – it is definitely punching above its weight.
For it to pull off the multiple drone attack, which has damaged or destroyed dozens of Russian warplanes, the planning had to be meticulous and highly guarded. The Kerch attack, on the other hand, is the latest in a series of assaults on the bridge that have consistently exposed Russian security weaknesses.
The twin attacks are indisputably successful. They have undoubtedly boosted morale among the civilian population and military. They have damaged Russian military hardware and will make the paranoid dictatorship even more insecure. And, almost as importantly, they show the world, including the less than enthusiastic American administration, that Ukraine still has a lot of fight left in it.
Indeed the airbase attack especially could have been a loud signal to the Americans, who, the Ukrainians fear, have given up on Ukraine as a fighting force in the face of the overwhelming Russian advantage in men and arms.
The timing of Sunday’s brilliant manoeuvre also came a day before a second round of talks between the two warring sides. In the end, no announcement of peace was made, though there was agreement on a further exchange of prisoners of war.
If the Ukrainians were hoping that such bold moves would force the Russians to agree to peace, they were to be disappointed. In the closed off Russia, most of its population will not have learned of the extent of the attacks given the highly restricted nature of its media. A few security officials might lose their positions and general paranoia in government circles increase, but Vladimir Putin will almost certainly not cave.
The effect on the Americans is also likely to be disappointing to Ukraine. The Trump administration is so firmly opposed to supporting Ukraine with free arms and ammunition that even such an audacious attack will not sway the USA. In fact the Americans might even see these Ukrainian moves as provocative and against the interest of peace, such is the country’s swing away from Ukraine.
Putin is also unlikely to take this embarrassing affront to his strongman image lying down. The Russians have shown themselves to have no scruples when it comes to hitting civilians and there might be a heavy price for Ukraine to pay in the coming days. These past few days have seen the Ukrainians flex their muscles in impressive ways but they will be hoping that their successes do not turn out to be Pyrrhic victories.
