While India as a whole can expect a wetter than average monsoon this year, Meghalaya and most of the North East and east of the country will be drier than normal, the Indian Meteorological Department has predicted.
Monsoon rains from June to September are likely to be 106 percent of the “long period average” (an average calculated from the figures from 1971 to 2020), with a model error of ±4 per cent.
However, the Bay of Bengal states – Odisha, West Bengal and all of the North East – are likely to be drier. The far north of the country – Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh and Himachal Pradesh – are also expected to experience less rainfall this year than average.
Meghalaya’s normal amount of monsoon rainfall is still high by national standards, at 2,856mm from June to September on average. This is second only to Goa’s 2,975mm.
June will be drier for Meghalaya as well as hotter, the data suggests.
Above normal monthly maximum and minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, including Meghalaya. However, no heatwave is expected for Meghalaya.
Globally, 2024 is expected to carry on from the previous year in terms of high temperatures due to the El Niño phenomenon, which is fading and being replaced by La Niña conditions, which are likely to develop during the latter part of the monsoon season.
The IMD will issue the forecast outlook for the July rainfall in the last week of June.
