By Melarbor L Thabah
When I was in my late teenage years till present, I have always been passionate about defence issues. In this current state, should a war break out between China and India, the Indian Air Force and Navy will be totally obliterated by the Chinese Air Force and Navy because of politico-bureaucratic red tape, slow reforms, limited funding and delayed local manufacturing which slows down large-scale procurement, and advanced weapons manufacturing. A brief glance on the respective shortcomings of each branch of the tri services is indispensable.
Shortcomings of the Indian AirForce:
India has an ageing fleet of aircrafts coupled with slow replacements since the retirement of the infamous pilot killer MiG 21. India faces a severe aircraft crisis with only 30 squadrons left from the minimum 42 and the maximum 70 squadrons that it must have in the event of a two-front war against China and Pakistan. India mostly has 4th and 3rd Generation fighter jets which will be difficult to combat the 5th generation fighter jets. These old jets will have to be phased out in the 2030s thus leaving India with a severely depleted Air Force. A strong Air Force is needed to protect North East India from China.
India has approximately 558 fighter and trainer jets compared to China which has 1,228 jets. The process of upgrading the existing jets is going nowhere. To add to this sordid state, Modi cancelled the purchase of 126 fighter jets in favour for only 36 Rafale fighter jets and the uncertain 83 Tejas jets of HAL, India, which the government had placed orders though the GE engines needed for Tejas jets are currently stalled by the USA. India’s AMCA programme of producing 5th generation fighter jets is still in the prototype and industry bidding phase.
In 2011, the IAF sent a proposal to the defence ministry to increase its sanctioned fighter aircraft strength to 45 combat squadrons to be readily prepared for war but received a poor response from the government. For decades, India has had a very poor rate of inducting new fighter aircraft with no off-the-shelf foreign procurements planned. Air Chief Marshal AP Singh recently highlighted the severe crisis in the Indian Air Force warning that the IAF is struggling to maintain its operational edge, making it imperative to fast-track acquisitions and plug equipment shortfall. Indian governments including this incumbent one has a knack for wasteful public expenditure by forming needless committees rather than trusting its officers. Nonetheless, the committee formed reported that the crisis is grave. Even then, the political leadership did not act by rapidly procuring en masse to meet these exigencies.
Analytical Air Force comparative approximates: Aircraft number between India and China are ;10 Reconnaissance Aircrafts compared to China which has 48, 3 Electronic Warfare Aircrafts versus China’s 35, 7 Tanker Aircrafts versus China’s 26, 179 important Unmanned Ariel Vehicles versus China’s 350, 594 Helicopters versus China’s 913, 79 Attack Helicopters versus China’s 281, 281 Transport Aircrafts versus China’s 295, 0 Helicopter Carriers, 72 Special Mission Aircraft versus China’s 419, 0 Long Range Bomber Aircrafts versus China’s 125 and most importantly 0 critical Fifth Generation stealth Fighter Jets versus China’s 560. Despite the offer from Russia, India refused to purchase 5th Generation fighter jets. Parliamentary Law is needed so that India will compulsorily have at least sixty squadrons because of the two-war front scenario.
Shortcomings of the Indian Navy:
India has a vast coastline with an Exclusive Economic Zone of 370 KMs encompassing innumerable strategic islands especially in the Bay of Bengal. Yet, previous and current governments have taken minute steps for naval modernization. The Indian Navy suffers from a shrinking submarine fleet, aging boats, submarines running on old technology with delayed upgrades, manpower shortages including officers, sailors and civilian workers for repairs. Most conventional diesel-electric submarines are over 30 years old with defects detected like in 26 Scorpene submarines. Lack of Air-Independent Propulsion disables submarines to stay longer underwater. India operates fewer submarines than its target number. Projected 75 submarine plans are progressing at a snail’s pace. Indian Navy’s premier destroyers and frigates use two totally incompatible Vertical Launch Systems for different missiles compared to other advanced nations which launch different missile varieties from the same cell.
Analytical Naval comparative approximates: Naval variant number between India and China are; 20 Frigates of India versus China’s 59, 13 Destroyers versus China’s 62, 23 Corvettes versus China’s 62, 16 Diesel Electric Submarines versus China’s 46, 3 Nuclear Submarines versus China’s 16, 290 naval aircrafts versus China’s 700, 0 mine counter vessel versus China’s 37, 2 Aircraft Carriers versus China’s 3, 5 amphibious vessels versus China’s 81, 0 Unmanned Vehicles versus China’s 34 and 13 ports versus China’s 22.
Shortcomings of the Indian Army:
It faces critical institutional shortcomings, slow procurement cycles, short supplies of basic ammunitions – fuses and infrastructure deficits along its borders. Many major weapon systems and equipment lag state-of-the-art technology required to outmatch advanced adversaries. Reports suggest a persistent shortage of thousands of officers against the sanctioned strength contiguous with heavy deployment for counter-insurgency and internal security obligations pulls the focus away from conventional high-intensity warfare preparedness.
Analytical Army comparative approximates: Army machines number between India and China are; 4,200 Indian tanks versus China’s 6,800, 264 MRLS versus China’s 2,750, 350 Ballistic missiles versus China’s 1,300, 1,000 drones versus China’s 4,500, 100 Self Propelled Artillery versus China’s 3,090, 100 Rocket Projectile Vehicles versus China’s 2,770, 2,415 Infantry vehicle versus China’s 8,050, 1,730 Armoured Carrier Vehicles versus China’s 4,350 and 1,730 MRAP versus China’s 3,768.
Overarching Ubiquitous Deficiencies of the Tri Services are:
Infrastructure, Logistics, Procurement Delays: – Red tape hurdles, slow infrastructural development, transportations, acquisition of advanced weapon systems and military hardware.
Equipment Modernization and Mass Manufacturing – Sluggishness in modernization, technological mass production of machines and equipment caused severe roadblocks with miniature indigenization progress.
Budgetary Constraints: 60% of India’s defence budget is consumed by salaries, pensions and unnecessary civil works thereby leaving inadequate funds for procurement.
Institutional Silos: The Tri Services have traditionally operated in separate silos with limited joint warfare coordination.
Procurement, R&D Lags, Oil Reserves: Procurement plagues major domestic programs like the Tejas fighter jet engine and the indigenous Arjun tank development. Research and Development has stalled in various technological fields. Oil reserves for running the machines of the Tri Services is not sufficient with only 21 million barrels of stored oil reserves lacking huge constructed hidden reserves for oil storage compared to China which has 1.4 billion barrels of stored oil with first priority to its Tri Services.
Unified Commands: China has five Unified Commands while India has only two fully functional Tri-Service unified commands of the army, navy, and air force assets which are not yet fully integrated theatre commands under the theaterization reform. Plans are moving at a snail’s pace to merge Northern, Western, and Maritime commands. Currently, 17 single-service commands (7 Army, 7 Air Force, 3 Navy) are not yet integrated.
Overall assessment analysis: Comparisons with China are majorly imperative so that India can have a benchmark to know in which state India is in when compared with its dangerous yet advanced adversary in order to achieve the desired technological modernisation and restructuring needed for stellar defence from which China will serve as the main benchmark. India’s military budget of only 86 billion is decent compared to the size and geography of the nation. It should be increased to be spent more on technology with 51% from the defence budget because as the world progresses, reliance on technology to win wars has become more pivotal not discounting personnel contribution. Current insanely humongous personnel number in the army implies more surrender. The low number of personnel types in the Air Force and Navy can be supplemented by converting one hundred thousand retired army posts to the Air Force and Navy respectively to supplement personnel shortage in these two services which will not be a problem since India has approximately 1.48 million active and 1.15 million reserve duty military personnel. The share of GDP ratio to the defence budget must be increased. The haughty conjectural nationalistic argument about the effectiveness of Chinese technology being untested in war must not be underestimated as they may be actually effective in a war. I appreciate the various reforms which the current ruling depensation has undertaken. I exhort the government to simplify the various paramilitary forces by subsuming the ITBP and SSB under the BSF and the Assam Rifles under the NSG. India must exhibit utmost urgency to buy weapons immediately to supplement the shortage in the tri services. In doing so, the urgent needs of the military are met whilst allowing time for its fledgling domestic military industry to grow. The government has to take cognizance that India faces an extreme threat from China and Pakistan which is why rapid modernization, mass manufacturing and structural reforms is requisite. A militarily strong nation commands immense respect and deters foes.
