By Dipak Kurmi
The global landscape of Catholicism is undergoing a monumental shift, a transformation rooted in demographic, cultural, and historical currents that have been building for decades. As the College of Cardinals prepares to elect a new pope, there is heightened anticipation that the next leader of the Catholic Church may come from outside Europe, further symbolising this profound transition. The election of Pope Francis in 2013, the first from South America, was a significant break from centuries of European dominance. A decade later, the centre of gravity in Catholicism has moved even further southward.
According to the Annuarium Statisticum Ecclesiae 2023, the global Catholic population has now surpassed 1.4 billion. More than 72% of the world’s Catholics live outside Europe, predominantly in South and Central America (41.2%), Africa (20%), and Asia (11%). Europe, once the cradle and stronghold of Catholicism, now accounts for just 20.4% of the faithful, while North America represents 6.6%. This is a dramatic reversal from the early 20th century when Europe was home to 65% of Catholics, and Latin America accounted for merely 24%, according to Pew Research Center data from 2013.
This demographic transformation reflects broader global population trends. In 1900, the Global South accounted for 64% of the world’s population, but by 2000, this figure had risen to 80%, and projections suggest it will reach 88% by 2100, according to economic historian Ewout Frankema. Europe, conversely, faces demographic decline. Eurostat estimates Europe’s population will peak at 453.3 million in 2026 before contracting by up to 6% by the century’s end. Meanwhile, sub-Saharan Africa is experiencing unprecedented growth. According to the UN’s World Population Prospects 2024, sub-Saharan Africa will host roughly a third of the world’s population by 2100, up from less than a fifth in 2020.
But raw population growth is only part of the story. Europe’s declining share of the Catholic population also mirrors the continent’s broader secularisation. In his seminal work The Decline of Christendom in Western Europe 1750–2000, historian Hugh McLeod outlined four key phases that explain Christianity’s dwindling influence: the rise of religious toleration post-Reformation, the Enlightenment’s critical literature, the separation of church and state, and the gradual loosening of societal ties to religious institutions through the 20th century. Today, these processes have culminated in a landscape where secularism and religious plurality dominate public life.
Data from Pew indicates that Europe’s Catholic population declined from 44% of the continent’s population in 1910 to 35% by 2010. France exemplifies this trend most vividly. Once 98.4% Catholic in 1910, it fell to 60.4% by 2010, and recent French government statistics from 2021 show only 47% of the population now identify as Catholic, compared to 33% who are religiously unaffiliated. The National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies’ 2019–20 survey reveals that among those aged 18 to 49 in France, 53% profess no religious affiliation at all, underscoring the generational deepening of secularism.
Meanwhile, in stark contrast, sub-Saharan Africa has seen a religious renaissance. From being less than 1% Catholic in 1910, the region rose to 21% Catholic by 2010. This expansion can be attributed to the Church’s flexible approach in accommodating indigenous cultures and traditions, alongside its enormous contributions to education and healthcare. As Jesuit priest Father Agbonkhianmeghe Orobator from Nigeria noted, Catholicism has become the largest non-state provider of welfare services across Africa, embedding the Church deeply into societal structures where state capacities are often limited.
Another critical factor undermining Catholicism’s hold in the West has been the succession of clerical sexual abuse scandals. These crises have severely dented public trust in the Church. A 2017 Gallup poll found that 49% of American Catholics had a high opinion of the clergy’s ethical standards, but this plummeted to 31% by the end of 2018 after numerous abuse cases came to light. Confidence in the Church as an institution also fell, dropping from 52% expressing “great” or “quite a lot” of confidence in 2017 to 44% in 2018.
While the Global South has not been entirely immune to abuse cases, it has largely avoided the mass public exposure and institutional crisis that has plagued the Church in Europe and North America. According to a 2019 Associated Press report, conflict zones and countries where Catholics are a minority have, for various reasons, seen fewer scandals erupt into public controversy.
As a result, while Catholicism diminishes in its traditional strongholds, it is flourishing in regions that were once mission fields. The potential next pope may well come from Africa or Asia, reflecting the realities of a Church whose vitality has moved southwards. Names like Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana or Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines have been floated in previous conclaves, and their candidacies may gain further momentum in this new chapter.
This migration of Catholicism’s centre is not just numerical but spiritual and cultural. African, Asian, and Latin American Catholicism often retain a vibrancy and orthodoxy that contrasts with the often more liberal and secular-leaning churches of Europe. The theological debates, priorities, and styles of worship in the future Church are likely to reflect the lived realities of believers in Nairobi, Manila, and São Paulo far more than those in Rome or Paris.
In many ways, this mirrors broader Christian trends. Pew’s 2022 projections suggest that by 2050, sub-Saharan Africa alone will have 2.5 times more Christians than Europe. Christianity’s future, both Catholic and otherwise, is undeniably being written in the Global South.
However, challenges remain. While growth is robust, many of the regions driving Catholic expansion face political instability, economic hardship, and internal Church governance issues. Furthermore, managing a truly global Church, diverse in culture and experience, will require nuanced leadership. Balancing the traditionalist perspectives of some regions with the progressive demands from others, especially in areas like gender roles, LGBTQ+ inclusion, and interfaith dialogue, will be a central task for future popes.
As Catholicism continues to evolve, it also carries a heavy responsibility. In an era marked by fragmentation and identity politics, the Church’s vast global network gives it a unique platform to advocate for human rights, peace, and solidarity across divisions. The Church’s expanding influence in the Global South brings with it opportunities to serve as a moral force in societies grappling with modernisation, inequality, and environmental degradation.
Catholicism’s axis has decisively shifted. The next pope may well hail from the very regions that are breathing new life into the Church. As Europe’s hold loosens and the Global South rises, the Catholic Church finds itself at a crossroads — a historic moment of renewal, challenge, and hope for the future of one of the world’s oldest and most widespread faiths.
(The writer can be reached at dipakkurmiglpltd@gmail.com)
