A majority of exit polls on November 20 predicted an edge for the ruling Mahayuti in Maharashtra, giving it a clear majority in the 288-member Assembly. While the results of the voting will be declared on November 23, most pollsters said that the BJP-Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde)-NCP (Ajit Pawar) combine may not find it difficult to cross the majority mark of 145 in the Maharashtra Assembly. The exit polls predictions for Jharkhand indicate a close fight as many pollsters are sharply divided on their projections for the BJP-led NDA and JMM-led INDIA Bloc in the state Assembly elections. As per projections by the polling agencies, Jharkhand may see a tight finish with some exit polls projecting a clean sweep for BJP+, some favouring JMM+ while one polling agency forecasting a hung house.
The two exits projecting people’s mandate in favour of the INDIA Bloc are Axis My India and P Marq. Amid the likely setback for Jharkhand’s ruling coalition, they can draw solace from the fact that Axis My India, the one with many right projections in the recent past, has given it a decisive mandate. According to Axis My India, JMM+ is seen bagging 49-59 seats while the BJP-led alliance is seen performing poorly at 17-27 seats. As per P Marq, the ruling alliance is expected to get 37-47 seats while the opposition falling behind closely with 30-40 seats. The only polling agency forecasting a hung house in Jharkhand is Dainik Bhaskar. It shows people’s mandate vertically divided with both alliances settling between 36-40 seats, moderately shorter than the halfway mark of 41.
Needless to say, the challenges of accurately predicting electoral outcomes have never been greater. Opinion as well as exit polls has often proven to be inaccurate leading to the debate centring on whether the practice should be stopped now. Remarkable instances of polling failures include the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the 2023 Chhattisgarh elections, the 2017 Uttar Pradesh elections, the 2015 Bihar elections, and the 2015 Delhi elections. Most recently, Haryana’s election results have once again defied the predictions of exit polls.
Election results have shown that pollsters are frequently off the mark, with the actual outcomes differing sharply from the predictions. The growing doubt over exit polls has led many to wonder whether these surveys are losing their relevance or if the very nature of polling needs to be re-evaluated. The failure of exit polls has often been attributed to pollsters getting carried away by the “noise” of the election campaign in India. They relied too heavily on public sentiment without paying enough attention to the silent, less vocal segments of the electorate. Pollsters fail to accurately assess the so-called “silent voters” — individuals who may not openly express their opinions but ultimately have a significant impact on the final results.
