The Election Commission is set to announce the Lok Sabha poll date on March 16. It is a popular understanding that the road to Raisina Hill in Delhi passes through Lucknow. Uttar Pradesh sends 80 MPs to the Parliament. The state is pivotal when it comes to forming a government at the Centre. With the 2024 general elections only a few weeks away, has anything changed in the state since the last election? Is UP poised to repeat history again? The political scenario is much the same with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s and the BJP’s popularity touching a crescendo and a beleaguered opposition aimlessly trying to wade into the troubled waters. The INDIA bloc apparently lacks the adhesive of unity.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the polls were held in seven phases, beginning on April 11 and ending on May 19 in Uttar Pradesh. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition is much the same in 2024 as it was in 2019. The NDA allies then included Apna Dal and Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party. It has now included the Nishad party as well into its fold. The major difference is that in 2019, the state witnessed a three-way contest with the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) combined pitted against the BJP and its allies while the Congress formed the third front in the elections.
The SP-BSP combine was touted as the game changer — mainly on caste arithmetic — but the results proved that the magic was over. The BSP managed to win ten seats while SP had to remain content with five. The Congress which had decided to go solo in 2019 saw the debut of Priyanka Gandhi as in charge of east UP while Jyotiraditya Scindia, then in the Congress, was given charge of western UP. For the optimist, it seemed like a fantastic political premiere but the results proved to be a disastrous anti-climax. The Congress could win only one seat — Sonia Gandhi retained her Rae Bareli seat — and the then party President Rahul Gandhi suffered a humiliating defeat in Amethi at the hands of BJP’s Smriti Irani.
The BJP returned to power with 62 seats from UP while its ally, Apna Dal won two seats. In 2024, the ruling BJP has little to worry about in Uttar Pradesh. The party’s promise of Ram Mandir has been fulfilled while the saffron wave is blowing like never before. Moreover, Modi’s personal popularity is at an all-time high. UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is also on a strong footing. The Samajwadi Party, which witnessed resurgence in the 2022 assembly polls, is now facing a revolt in the ranks and dissent over ticket distribution. The Congress has almost melted away in Uttar Pradesh with its leaders choosing greener pastures. The BSP remains in a state of indecision and lacks political goals.
