As the war in Ukraine enters its third year, the conflict will be determined not just on the battlefield but also in Western capitals and other places far from the front lines. The future looks bleak for war-weary Ukraine: It is beset by shortages in soldiers and ammunition, as well as doubts about the supply of Western aid. Two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion captured nearly a quarter of the country, the stakes could not be higher for Kyiv. Much of the war has descended into grinding artillery battles, with both sides firing thousands of shells every day.
After a string of victories in the first year of the war, fortunes have turned for the Ukrainian military, which is dug in, outgunned and outnumbered against a more powerful opponent. Ukraine suffered setbacks after the much-anticipated summer counteroffensive failed to produce any breakthroughs. The armed forces switched to a defensive posture in the fall to repel new advances from Moscow. On February 17, Russian forces took control of the embattled city of Avdiivka. Ukrainian commanders had complained for weeks of personnel and ammunition shortages.
If they continue, ammunition shortages will jeopardise Ukraine’s ability to hold territory and keep soldiers alive. Its military appears to be rationing shells, sending trickles of ammunition to firing positions to preserve stockpiles, while promises for more ammunition from Western allies have gone unfulfilled. The European Union failed on its promise to deliver one million rounds by the start of the year, delivering only a few hundred thousand. Short of ammunition and forced to retreat in some areas, Kyiv’s ability to repel Russia’s invasion depends heavily on Western military, financial and political backing.
Ukraine is reliant on Western allies and international organisations not just for military aid but also for financial support and humanitarian help. Without Western assistance, Ukraine will not have the weapons, ammunition and training it needs to sustain the war effort, nor will it be able to keep its battered economy afloat or reach Ukrainians trapped in the crossfire of battles. Between divisions about the future of aid within the EU and $60 billion in military aid languishing in the United States Congress, Western countries have not been as forthcoming with money this year.
Kyiv breathed a sigh of relief in February when the EU approved extending a 50-billion-Euro ($54-billion) aid package for Ukraine after resistance from Hungary. That money is meant to support the economy and rebuild the country, not to fight Russia. But it’s the US funding of $60 billion that many Ukrainian leaders are waiting for. The funds will enable Ukraine to purchase weapons and equipment from American firms, access more military training and intelligence sharing, and bolster air and sea defences. The money will also provide direct budget support for Kyiv. Until now that is uncertain.
