The rank and file of the BJP is enthused and energised over the ‘saffron wave’ gripping the country after the inauguration of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya. In a bold assertion, Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a public address in Jhabua, Madhya Pradesh recently proclaimed the BJP’s dominance in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, stating that the party is poised to secure over 370 seats. Modi also said that the BJP will bag more than 370 seats on its own, while the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will cross the 400-seat mark.
The BJP’s projected numbers could be a reality, given the party’s renewed allies’ support and its repeat performance in 2024, akin to the 2019 elections. NDA has been strengthened in Bihar and Maharashtra, with Nitish Kumar switching side to the BJP and also rebel factions of Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) joining hands. This indeed has been a shot in the arm for the NDA, but it needs to replicate the strike rate of 2019 polls.
For scripting a bigger victory than 2019, the BJP will require to retain its strongholds, better the NDA tally in key states and good equations with Shiv Sena and NCP in Maharashtra. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-led NDA had a strike rate of 94 per cent and made a clean sweep in the Hindi heartland. In many states like Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Jharkhand, it won more than 94 per cent of the total LS seats, thereby winning 198 of the total 210 seats. This time too, the party will have to retain the same 94 per cent strike rate, rather spike it further.
The BJP demolished its rivals in the northern belt but its performance in the southern states remained unsatisfactory. In Uttar Pradesh too, the party lost 16 out of 80 seats. This time, it will need to close these gaps and aim for even greater share from the country’s biggest state. Out of these 285 seats, the party grabbed 114 seats, at a strike rate of 40 per cent. The party will need to increase the strike rate to 57 per cent this time, i.e., register victory on 161 of the 285 seats.
Maharashtra remains one of the crucial states for the BJP. In the 2019 elections, it won 23 seats while its key ally Shiv Sena bagged 18 seats. Together, they claimed 41 out of the 48 seats, resulting in a strike rate of 85 per cent. After the vertical split in Shiv Sena and NCP, the BJP will be expected to not just retain its own 23 seats, but also command victory on 18 seats. The BJP’s top brass has launched a series of campaign strategy and outreach programmes for giving not just a third term to the Modi government, but with a resounding and record mandate.
