The IMD projects above-normal rainfall activity in some pockets of the North East region, even as it expects below-normal monsoon rains for most of India. For a region that has logged five consecutive years of below-normal seasonal rainfall, the forecast signals a potential break in the dry cycle that has hit kharif sowing, tea estates and power generation.
“The spatial distribution suggests that below-normal seasonal rainfall is most likely over many parts of the country except some areas over northeast, northwest and South Peninsular India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely,” the IMD said in its seasonal outlook.
Despite the improved regional outlook, the distribution is expected to be patchy. The IMD said parts of western Assam and the easternmost parts of the state may still see deficit seasonal rainfall through the June-September period. Meghalaya, Tripura and Mizoram are also likely to receive below-normal monsoon rainfall, the department indicated.
That leaves Assam with what officials described as a “mixed bag” — adequate rains in some districts, but shortfalls in others that could affect paddy transplantation and flood patterns in the Brahmaputra basin. In Meghalaya, a sixth straight below-normal monsoon would extend pressure on Shillong’s water supply and on jhum and terrace cultivation in the Khasi and Jaintia Hills.
The North East’s relatively better projection stands out against the IMD’s all-India forecast, which points to below-normal seasonal rainfall for many parts of the country. The department said normal to above-normal rainfall is likely only in some areas of the North East, North West and South Peninsular India.
Meteorologists caution that the first stage forecast gives a broad seasonal picture. The spatial and temporal spread – how much rain, where and when – will decide the impact on agriculture and disaster risk. Early June rains are key for sowing, while July-August totals determine crop health and hydropower inflows.
The IMD will issue an updated forecast in late May with finer regional distribution and the likely date of monsoon onset over Kerala, which typically sets the timeline for its advance into the North East by the first week of June.
For now, farmers and power utilities across the region are watching the skies and the second forecast.
