The quick fall — and flight — of Syrian President Bashar Al Assad has evoked triumph in certain quarters and disquiet in others, as it seems to have upended the political situation and strategic calculus of the Middle East. However, a look at the record of the key Arab country and others may suggest the last word on what follows remains to be said. Russia and Iran are seeking to build bridges with the new rulers in Syria. Russia has obtained guarantees on its bases in the country. But there are problems in maintaining control over a fragmenting and impoverished country.
While Syria is predominantly Sunni, the power was long held by the Alawite sub-sect of Shias, from which the Assad family and its key personnel hail, and the country also has sizeable Kurd, Druze, Shia, and Arab Christian (divided into six major churches) segments of the populace. Bashar Al Assad succeeded his father in 2000 and governed without hitch till the Arab Spring affected his country too, leading to the outbreak of the Syrian Civil War in 2011.
It was a tough time for him till Russian and Iranian military intervention turned the tide, leading to roughly another decade in power till the rebels’ resurgence at the end of 2024 spelt a final finish. The Assads’ long rule may have been despotic, but, here its end must be compared with the situation that arose after the violent overthrow of other ‘despots’ in the Middle East, spanning the entire region from the dusty plains of Iraq to the sandy expanses of Libya. Did the ouster of either Saddam Hussain of Iraq in 2003 or Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 leave the countries a better place?
The answer is evident — in Iraq, the long-repressed Shia majority rose up and an alignment with neighbouring Iran was achieved, while sparking a Sunni insurgency that required the US and the regime a considerable time to stamp out. Scarcely had this been done, the spectre of the Islamic State — which in some respects, outdid Al Qaeda in viciousness — arose. While the US claims credit for countering and weakening it, the role of Iran-backed Iraqi militias was also key. On the other hand, the removal of Gaddafi’s strong hand left Libya divided and in chaos.
The Al Qaeda-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, the US-supported Syrian Democratic Forces, and other elements of what may become a toxic Syrian brew, may find ousting Assad was the easy part. Take the SDF, which is predominantly Kurdish — a community which Turkey regards as its enemy incarnate — what happens when they come close? Israel, as a neighbour, will also face the blowback, irrespective of rumours of “common interests”. And growing Turkish influence in an adjoining country, given the rising tension between the two over Gaza is not conducive to peace.
