In the 2024 general elections, the NDA and INDI Alliance emerged triumphant, securing 292 and 234 seats, respectively. However, to ensure a solid majority, the BJP will be bolstered by the support of the TDP and JDU, acting as crucial pillars. Without their backing, the NDA would find itself eight seats short of a simple majority.
Analysing a national theme in this election proves challenging due to the varied performance across different states. In Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, the BJP and NDA exhibited significant improvement compared to the 2019 general elections. However, in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Haryana, Karnataka, and Rajasthan, they faced setbacks, underperforming in their traditional strongholds. The losses outweighed the gains in new territories. The electorate’s voting patterns reflected the distinctive political landscapes of each state.
The assortment of La Bharti schemes that propelled the BJP and NDA from 283 and 333 seats in the 2014 elections to 303 and 353 seats faced diminished influence among beneficiaries in the 2024 elections. This outcome was predictable, as voters tend to prioritise voting based on a single set of La Bharti schemes for a party in one election cycle rather than across two consecutive elections, unless those schemes are expanded into new territories or intensified further.
The impact of the Ujjwal Yojana was evident as it empowered women to exercise their voting rights in Uttar Pradesh, mitigating the influence of the formidable SP-BSP alliance, as well as in Rajasthan and Haryana, where the BJP garnered over 50 per cent of the vote in the 2019 elections. Women found solace in the availability of LPG for cooking, which contributed to the BJP’s victory.
However, in 2024, the Ujjwal Yojana faced diminished appeal due to concerns among voters about high charges and the upfront payment required despite subsidies. Had the 5 kg cylinder been provided at an upfront fee, it would have benefited the Modi 2.0 administration and facilitated wider adoption of the initiative.
The PM Awas Yojana is still underway, but its completion before the 2024 elections would have been ideal for maximum impact. The distribution of free ration, providing 5 kg of grains per person, undoubtedly contributed to the BJP and NDA’s success.
While the provision of toilets is commendable, their utility will be fully realised only when accompanied by access to water at home. The Nal Jal scheme is also progressing, and its completion will be crucial for maximising its benefits. Although electricity connections to all households were achieved before the 2019 elections, they are unlikely to be a decisive factor for voters in the 2024 elections.
Recipients expressed frustration over being denied access to utilities when they were needed, only to face additional financial burdens when the utilities were finally provided. While offering these utilities for free to the public may seem like a viable strategy, it is not financially sustainable and could lead to the creation of vested interests.
The increased income of beneficiaries from new employment opportunities was largely absorbed by the costs of these utilities. With just three years remaining for the government to bolster the income of the general population following two years of salary cuts due to Covid-19, the failure to do so has led to growing resentment, impacting the BJP and NDA in these states.
During the Modi 2.0 government’s tenure, CPI inflation was only marginally higher at around 5.5 per cent compared to the first term’s 4.5 per cent. This stands in stark contrast to the UPA 2 government, which saw CPI inflation peak at 9.8 per cent. However, for the less privileged members of society who lost their jobs due to Covid-19 for two years, even this modest inflation rate proved to be unbearable. It was unlikely that the consecration of the Ram temple would significantly benefit the BJP and NDA, as it primarily appeals to staunch BJP supporters who were already inclined to vote for the party.
In states with lower per capita income and limited private sector opportunities, unemployment remains a pressing concern for voters. Even though migrant workers may seek opportunities in states like Gujarat, Maharashtra, Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and others, the allure of a permanent government position, even as an office assistant, holds greater value for these individuals.
Conversely, in states with higher GDP per capita, employment issues are often tied to the influx of new investments and the overall economic growth trajectory rather than the availability of government jobs. The youth in these states might have found some relief in employment prospects if competitive exams had been conducted without delays caused by issues like paper leaks. However, the larger issue of a dearth in economic opportunities can only be tackled through a combination of increased private investments alongside public initiatives.
It’s crucial to acknowledge the staggering demand for government positions, with as many as 200 applicants vying for each opening. Concerns over unemployment are particularly pronounced among highly educated individuals holding PG degrees, PhDs, and other qualifications. Despite their academic achievements, many find themselves ill-equipped to either create economic opportunities for themselves and their peers or secure gainful employment in firms that prioritise productivity from the outset.
The BJP and NDA suffered a loss of 61 seats in comparison to the 2019 general elections, attributed to several factors. Economic constraints prevented many from fully utilising the utilities provided by the central government, compounded by two years of income loss due to Covid-19. Furthermore, the populace’s economic vulnerability, especially in handling moderate inflation, added to the challenges. Additionally, despite their educational qualifications, many individuals found themselves unable to leverage them effectively to access economic opportunities.
Without the implementation of key initiatives such as the distribution of free five kg food grains per person, the expansion of essential utilities to previously underserved segments of society, the successful rollout of a widespread immunisation program to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, and the provision of food grains and financial assistance during the crisis, the BJP and NDA would not have secured 240 and 292 seats, respectively, in the 2024 elections.
Despite achieving vote shares of approximately 36.56 per cent and 44 per cent, which were slightly lower than their 2019 counterparts by 1.7 per cent and 1 per cent, the conversion of vote share to seats witnessed a significant decline for the BJP, particularly with its widespread electoral presence in 2024. Conversely, in the 2019 elections, the BJP and NDA experienced greater efficiency in converting concentrated vote shares into seats.
(The writer can be reached at dipakkurmiglpltd@gmail.com)
