The recent inauguration of Narendra Modi’s third term has concluded, signaling the return to regular governance. However, a palpable sense of unease lingers throughout India, as the BJP administration finds itself reliant on the crucial support of Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP and Nitish Kumar’s JD(U). This alliance, akin to a political life-support system, underscores the precarious nature of the current political landscape.
In the 2014 elections, the BJP secured 282 seats independently, constituting 31 per cent of the total, while its triumph in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls saw a surge to 303 seats, amounting to 37 per cent, despite Chandrababu Naidu’s vigorous attempts to thwart their success. This marks the first instance during Modi’s tenure where he relies on allies for the government’s sustenance.
The resurfacing of the old slogan “Minimum Government and Maximum Governance” reflects the current scenario. Achieving BJP’s ambitious goals such as the Uniform Civil Code, ‘One Nation, One Poll’, and the Agniveer project hinges significantly on the support of Naidu and Nitish Kumar.
In a significant address at the Institute of Rural Management Anand (IRMA), M Venkaiah Naidu, the former Vice-President, underscored the importance of the recent election outcome. Naidu emphasised that the results carry a clear message that must be heeded. Despite emerging as the largest single party in the Lok Sabha, the ruling BJP fell short of securing a majority independently, highlighting a robust performance by the Opposition.
One notable aspect of this election was the conspicuous absence of RSS volunteers from the campaign trail. The RSS was reportedly displeased by BJP President J P Nadda’s statement disassociating the party from the Bhagwa Dhwaj, the saffron flag symbolising Sanatana Dharma. Historically, Shivaji, the esteemed Maratha emperor, declared that their flag, believed to be divinely created by Lord Indra, bore the saffron hue representing divine grace. He emphasised to his ministers and commanders that the flag symbolised humanity, urging them to uphold its ideals faithfully.
The call for change in party leadership is growing louder for Nadda, as critics argue he has failed to inspire or enlighten the public with his words and deeds. Comparisons are drawn to two stalwarts from South India, K Kamaraj and S Nijalingappa, former Congress presidents who were revered as giants in Indian political history. Nadda would benefit from studying their leadership styles and legacies to rejuvenate his approach and effectiveness within the party.
The public hasn’t forgotten Naidu’s efforts to challenge Modi in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. His alliances with Sonia Gandhi, Mamata Banerjee, M K Stalin, and noted figures like Sitaram Yechury and D Raja were widely noted as an attempt to unseat Modi and Amit Shah. In today’s political landscape, no single party commands an absolute majority to independently form the government.
The National Democratic Alliance, often labeled as having unpredictable allies, holds nearly 300 MPs, 27 more than needed for a majority. While the Congress fell short of reaching triple digits on its own, its coalition partners have bolstered its position as a significant force in opposition politics.
This year brings a starkly different dynamic. Despite Modi’s charismatic and steadfast leadership, he finds himself reliant on two regional leaders with aspirations on the national stage. Even before the NDA convened its inaugural meeting, Kumar and Naidu have presented a list of demands, including the caste census and the abandonment of the Agniveer initiative. This underscores the evolving power dynamics within the coalition as it navigates these new challenges.
Jagan Mohan Reddy, the leader of YSR Congress and outgoing Chief Minister, compelled Naidu to seek refuge within the BJP fold. Allegations of corruption led to Naidu’s arrest and imprisonment during Reddy’s tenure, prompting Naidu to align with BJP and Modi ahead of the 2024 Assembly elections.
Having achieved more than expected, Naidu now sets his sights on greater rewards. His controversial history includes betraying his father-in-law, N T Rama Rao, TDP’s founder, to assume leadership. Nitish Kumar mirrors Naidu in political maneuvering, embodying the opportunistic “Aaya Ram, Gaya Ram” politics. Together, Naidu and Nitish, viewed as unreliable supports, may lead Modi’s government into uncertain territory.
The ongoing political turmoil is a result of the BJP’s own actions. Recall the tumultuous five-day saga in Maharashtra back in 2019, where Devendra Fadnavis, then Leader of the Opposition, was hastily sworn in as Chief Minister with Ajit Pawar of the NCP as his deputy. Their brief tenure ended in embarrassment, with Fadnavis stepping down just two days later.
Fadnavis and other senior BJP leaders had openly criticised Ajit as the epitome of corruption. However, their stance softened when they swiftly formed a coalition government with him. Despite Ajit’s brief tenure and quick return to the Pawar family fold, Fadnavis extended the olive branch again, and Ajit is now aligned with Hindutva forces once more. This raises questions about BJP’s vocal opposition to dynasty politics, as they enter into alliances with purely family-run enterprises they claim to oppose.
Fadnavis’ haste led to his political downfall, akin to the kamikaze move by Chaudhary Charan Singh in 1979, ostensibly to send a message to then Prime Minister Morarji Desai. Like Chaudhary Saheb, who went down with the Janata ship and couldn’t stage a comeback later, Fadnavis’ abrupt actions proved costly and irreparable.
(The writer can be reached at dipakkurmiglpltd@gmail.com)
