The G-7 summit of the world’s leading economies, excluding China, will convene from June 13-15 at a scenic Italian resort by the Adriatic Sea. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, previously considered a fringe figure on the right, now commands significant domestic support compared to her counterparts and some invited leaders.
In the lead-up to the November presidential election, US President Joe Biden finds himself behind his Republican rival Donald Trump in recent polls. This comes despite Trump facing legal challenges, including a conviction in one case and ongoing trials in others. A video showing Biden appearing disoriented in public surfaced, necessitating intervention from Meloni to guide him back on track. It was an image that Biden’s team had hoped to avoid projecting.
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has called for an unexpected early election set for July 4, where he faces predictions of a defeat to the rising Labour Party. Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron, reacting to the strong showing of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) in the European parliamentary elections, has surprisingly dissolved parliament, scheduling new elections for June 30 and July 7.
Despite having three years left in his final term, Macron is contemplating two potential outcomes. First, French voters, having expressed discontent by flirting with the RN, may opt for a different direction. There is a convergence of socialist and left-of-center parties preparing for a unified challenge. Second, even if the RN gains control of parliament and the prime minister’s position, it could face scrutiny over the next three years due to governance issues and fiscal mismanagement.
Germany, Europe’s largest economy, dealt a blow to Chancellor Olaf Scholz as his party fell behind both the Christian Democrats and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the recent European elections. The Greens, known for their focus on climate change issues, also saw disappointing results.
After eight years in office, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is grappling with increasing discontent among voters. A recent poll indicates his approval rating stands at 30 per cent, trailing behind Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, who commands 40 per cent support. Despite the next election not scheduled until September 2025, Trudeau faces a challenging road ahead to regain political momentum.
Among the special invitees, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan recently encountered a setback in local elections, highlighting domestic political challenges. Meanwhile, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi secured a third term, albeit with his party losing its parliamentary majority, necessitating reliance on coalition partners. Managing a coalition government demands diplomatic finesse, an area where PM Modi’s leadership in Delhi and Ahmedabad remains a topic of scrutiny.
The leaders facing challenges today are confronted with pressing global issues. The conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza demand immediate attention, overshadowing other concerns. Additionally, China’s growing economic influence poses a significant challenge to the established global order. In response, the United States is urging the European Union to increase tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle imports. The presence of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the summit has shifted focus directly onto Ukraine’s security situation.
The US has announced a decade-long security pact with Ukraine, aimed at bolstering its defence capabilities in the face of long-term threats. However, the durability of this commitment remains uncertain, with potential future shifts in US policy depending on electoral outcomes. Furthermore, the G-7 has pledged substantial financial aid totaling $50 billion to Ukraine, leveraging blocked Russian foreign exchange reserves. President Biden’s message to Russian President Vladimir Putin underscores a firm stance against strategic waiting tactics.
Climate change mitigation remains widely endorsed across Europe, despite challenges. Global average temperatures reached record highs for 12 consecutive months up to last May, highlighting the urgency of action. European initiatives, such as dedicating 4 per cent of arable land to biodiversity conservation, have sparked some public opposition. Nevertheless, there is growing recognition that extreme weather events are increasingly impacting global food security.
The G-7 countries’ portion of the global GDP has been declining as China and India’s shares have expanded in recent years. The latest European parliamentary elections witnessed gains for far-right parties, including Italy’s ruling Brothers of Italy party, which doubled its representation. Despite these gains, centrists maintain dominance in the European political landscape. Meanwhile, Germany and France are experiencing a rise in far-right influence, while in Britain, the left-leaning Labour Party is driving political momentum. Adding to the complexity, Donald Trump’s lead in the US presidential race further complicates the global political landscape.
Domestic political dynamics can have significant international policy ramifications. Far-right parties, which are gaining traction, often oppose free trade, advocate for softer stances on Russia, show less aggression towards China, and maintain strong anti-immigration sentiments. The presence of the Indian Prime Minister at the summit, beginning his third term, presents a timely opportunity to evaluate these shifting dynamics on the global stage.
The G-7 seeks greater alignment from India on efforts to isolate Russia, curb Chinese trade and technological advancements, and advance climate control initiatives. However, India is unlikely to forfeit its access to Russian oil and coal due to both economic necessities and strategic considerations. Moreover, the G-7’s focus on environmental issues has been tempered by ongoing geopolitical conflicts such as Ukraine and Israel-Hamas, which have diverted attention and resources. This summit faces challenges due to the political turbulence in key democratic economies worldwide.
(The writer can be reached at dipakkurmiglpltd@gmail.com)
