India’s Act East Policy (AEP), originally conceived as the Look East Policy, has been a cornerstone of New Delhi’s foreign relations strategy since the end of the Cold War. What began as a policy to foster closer ties with Southeast Asian nations has evolved into a broader initiative aimed at addressing both economic and strategic interests in the region.
Over the years, the scope of the AEP has expanded to include deeper engagements with major Asian powers like Japan and South Korea, with the ultimate objective of securing India’s northeastern frontier and promoting cross-border economic integration. However, recent regional political developments, particularly in Bangladesh and Myanmar, have triggered a reassessment of the policy’s effectiveness and its future trajectory.
Emerging Challenges in Bangladesh and Myanmar: In recent times, Bangladesh has emerged as a point of geopolitical concern for India, especially following the political turmoil that led to the ousting of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024. The change in leadership has altered the dynamics of India-Bangladesh relations, as the new government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, signals a potential reevaluation of bilateral ties. Bangladesh, historically a strong ally of India, may now shift its foreign policy priorities, which could have significant implications for India’s security and economic interests in the region.
This diplomatic uncertainty has strained several key initiatives that India had been pursuing with Bangladesh. The suspension of crucial transport services and the stoppage of goods and people from crossing the India-Bangladesh border reflect the increasing fragility of this relationship. A major worry for India is how the change in Bangladeshi leadership will impact ongoing infrastructure projects, particularly the India-Myanmar-Bangladesh Trilateral Highway. This highway was envisioned to bolster India’s connectivity with Southeast Asia through its north-eastern states, but its completion now seems jeopardised.
Myanmar, another key player in India’s north-eastern security strategy, presents a different set of challenges. Since the military’s violent takeover in February 2021, Myanmar has been embroiled in a conflict that threatens to destabilise the region. On February 8, 2024, the Myanmar military government officially suspended the Free Movement Regime (FMR) with India, effectively ending a longstanding bilateral security agreement that facilitated free movement across the India-Myanmar border for borderland communities. This has disrupted not only cross-border trade but also the social and economic lives of people living along the border.
The rise of insurgent activity and a refugee influx from Myanmar to India’s north-eastern states like Mizoram and Manipur has further exacerbated tensions. The ongoing ethnic conflict in Myanmar’s Rakhine state and the instability within its borders have made it increasingly difficult for India to secure peace and stability in its own north-eastern region. With India’s strategic highway projects facing delays and the bilateral agreements with Myanmar in jeopardy, the regional outlook seems increasingly fraught with challenges.
A Geopolitical Reassessment: Given these pressing challenges, India’s Act East Policy demands a comprehensive reassessment. The success of this policy is heavily contingent on maintaining peace and stability in the north-eastern region, which serves as India’s gateway to Southeast Asia. The recent deterioration of India’s relationships with both Bangladesh and Myanmar is likely to hinder the policy’s progress, as infrastructure projects, economic connectivity initiatives, and strategic partnerships remain crucial to its long-term goals.
In addition to the diplomatic setbacks, India must now contend with the broader implications of shifting regional politics. The military’s decision to suspend the Free Movement Regime with Myanmar is particularly significant, as it threatens to upend India’s long-standing security cooperation with its north-eastern neighbour. This will likely intensify the instability already present in the region, where insurgencies have plagued north-eastern states for decades. India’s ability to navigate these complexities and restore peace will be crucial for the future of its Act East Policy.
The Importance of Regional Stability for India’s Strategic Interests: At its core, the AEP is designed to promote regional cooperation by strengthening economic ties and improving infrastructure. However, for India to succeed in its strategic vision for the north-eastern region, it must first ensure peace and stability. The ongoing conflicts in Myanmar and Bangladesh pose significant threats to India’s efforts in fostering economic integration and regional cooperation.
Stability in the north-eastern region is vital for India to unlock the full potential of its connectivity projects, particularly the India-Myanmar-Bangladesh Trilateral Highway, the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Project, and the strategic rail links with Southeast Asia. These projects, if successfully completed, would serve as a gateway to greater economic integration between South and Southeast Asia. However, these initiatives are unlikely to succeed unless India can address the political and security challenges posed by the deteriorating situation in its northeastern states and neighbouring countries.
Furthermore, India’s geostrategic interests in Southeast Asia hinge on its ability to navigate the complex political landscapes of Bangladesh and Myanmar. The changing dynamics in these countries, coupled with increasing Chinese influence, demand that India adopt a more adaptive and nuanced approach to its regional foreign policy.
Charting a Way Forward: India’s Act East Policy has undoubtedly been a vital part of its foreign relations strategy but the recent geopolitical changes in Bangladesh and Myanmar underscore the need for a relook at its current approach. While infrastructure and connectivity projects remain a priority, the immediate challenge for India is restoring peace and stability in its northeastern region. As insurgencies and cross-border tensions rise, India must recalibrate its foreign policy to protect its strategic interests in the region. This includes reengaging diplomatically with Bangladesh’s new leadership and managing the ongoing crisis in Myanmar.
In an increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape, the future success of the Act East Policy will depend not only on India’s infrastructure development but also on its ability to maintain stable and cooperative relations with its north-eastern neighbours. The policy’s ultimate success lies in India’s ability to adapt to the shifting political realities while safeguarding its strategic and economic interests in Southeast Asia.
As the region becomes ever more critical to India’s long-term strategic goals, the emphasis on peace, diplomacy, and regional cooperation will be paramount to ensuring that the Act East Policy remains relevant and effective in the years to come.
(The writer can be reached at dipakkurmiglpltd@gmail.com)
