The death of Pope Francis marks the end of a historic papacy and the beginning of a significant transition for the Catholic Church. As the faithful around had said goodbye to the People’s Pope, attention now turns to the next phase: the election of a new pontiff. Catholic cardinals from all over the world will converge under Michelangelo’s ceiling frescoes in the Sistine Chapel on May 7 to begin a conclave, the secret election process to choose the next pope. The date was confirmed by the Vatican after cardinals gathered for the first pre-conclave meeting since the funeral of Pope Francis.
The 16th-century Sistine Chapel has been closed to tourists to allow preparations for the election. The 135 cardinals eligible to vote will be sequestered between the chapel and their lodgings at Casa Santa Marta, the guesthouse where Pope Francis lived during his 12-year papacy, for however long it takes to pick a new pontiff. Here, through prayer, reflection and secret ballots, they must reach a two-thirds majority to choose the next Bishop of Rome.
Eight in 10 of those eligible to vote in the conclave were appointed by Francis, with 20 only becoming cardinals in December. Francis made a point of selecting cardinals from places where there had never previously been one, such as Myanmar, Haiti and Rwanda. Until this past week, many had never met each other before. Most of the cardinals with voting power – 53 – are European. They are followed by 23 cardinals from Asia, 18 from Africa, 17 from South America, 16 from North America, four from Central America and four from Oceania. Together, they represent 17 countries. There is no clear frontrunner for pope, although Luis Antonio Tagle, a reformer from the Philippines, and Pietro Parolin from Italy are among the early favourites.
For years, traditionalists raged at Pope Francis’ liberal approach. The question now is whether his successor will walk the same path, or take the Catholic Church in a new direction. Experts say that despite his reforms, Pope Francis did not change fundamental doctrine – suggesting the next leader could bring a fresh style and different priorities, but is unlikely to upend 2,000 years of belief.
The Argentinian certainly took some radical steps. He made institutional changes, lifted the veil of papal secrecy over child sex abuse, limited the use of the Latin mass, and opened the door to blessings of same-sex couples. He emphasised humility, wasted no opportunity to speak out for the voiceless and lambast the powerful, while promising to open the Church to all, epitomised by his remark on gay believers: “Who am I to judge?”
All these statements made an impression on public opinion. With his successor it is not certain that the issue of migrants, which he hammered home for 12 years, will be taken up in the same way and with such frequency. Another shift could be on world conflicts, in which Pope Francis has intervened in a way unmatched by almost all the sovereign pontiffs of the 20th century.
The future pope will have to manage a number of key challenges facing the Catholic Church, from the role of women to the continued revelations about clerical child sex abuse. What is certain is that the next pope will shape the church’s future: doctrinally, diplomatically and pastorally. Whether he chooses to build on Francis’ legacy of reform, or move in a new direction, he will need to balance ancient traditions with the urgent realities of the modern world in order to guide the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics.
