It was a massive jolt to the ruling BJP as the opposition INDIA bloc swept the recently-held assembly by-election, winning 10 out of the 13 seats which were contested across seven states. In the by-polls, just two seats were won by BJP and one seat by an Independent. In Himachal Pradesh, the Congress won Dehra and Nalagarh, while the BJP won Hamirpur. In Punjab, the AAP won Jalandhar West. In Uttarakhand, the Congress won Badrinath and Manglaur. In West Bengal, the TMC won Raiganj, Ranaghat-Dakshin, Bagda, and Maniktala. In Tamil Nadu, the DMK won Vikravandi. In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP won Amarwara. In Bihar, an Independent candidate won Rupauli.
The landslide victory of the Trinamool Congress in the by-polls for four assembly constituencies in West Bengal left a lot of room for introspection for the BJP on the party’s future strategy in the state ahead of the 2026 assembly elections. The Trinamool has not only been able to record a landslide victory margin at Maniktala but has also been able to clinch victories after overcoming the deficits in the past two elections at Bagda, Raiganj and Ranaghat-Dakshin. The results of the by-polls at Bagda and Ranaghat-Dakshin, both dominated by voters from the Matua community, are a concern for the BJP since it had been enjoying the support of the Matua voters in both the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
In a high-stake by-polls for three assembly seats in Himachal Pradesh, Chief Minister Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu not only ensured a win on two of three seats, including his greenhorn politician wife Kamlesh Thakur’s Dehra constituency that saw neck-and-neck contest but also strengthened his government by securing an absolute majority in the assembly. With these wins, the Congress got an absolute majority of 40 seats – six over than the halfway mark of 34 in the 68-member House. In a face-saving for the AAP government in Punjab, the party won the Jalandhar (West) assembly by-election, defeating the BJP candidate whose defection from AAP necessitated the by-poll.
The by-poll results show that the wave is going against the BJP. The INDIA bloc’s sustained efforts to focus on the bread and butter issues and not get embroiled in the emotional issues played a great role in its wins besides the coming together of various parties with a single aim to oust the BJP. The fact that the INDIA bloc continues to garner seats even in the first test of the mood of the electors after the Lok Sabha elections is something that the BJP and Modi must be worried about. The INDIA bloc parties are now preparing for the forthcoming assembly polls in Jharkhand, Haryana, Maharashtra and the Union territory of Jammu and Kashmir. The upcoming assembly polls are indeed crucial for both the INDIA bloc and the BJP.
