Meghalaya is not going to change its habit this year and would deliver yet another fractured mandate in this Assembly election, fifty one years after its statehood. The NPP would emerge as the single largest party.
According to Peoples Pulse-Big TV exit poll, the ruling NPP is likely to get 17-26 seats, the TMC 10-14 seats, UDP 8-12, BJP 3-8, Congress 3-5, VPP 1-2, PDF 1-2, HSPDP 1-2, GNC 0-1 and others 1-2 seats.
Peoples Pulse – Big TV conducted an exit poll today in 15 Assembly segments selected on the basis of Probability Proportional Methodology (PPS).
Four polling stations were selected from each Assembly segment. In each polling station 20 samples were collected. A total of 1200 samples were chosen such that the sample reflects the situation on the ground in terms of caste, religion and age. Gender was given equal representation.
Meghalaya has a 60-member Assembly, with a magic figure being 31. There is a strong possibility that state regional parties would play a key role in government formation.
“The BJP has been trying hard to improve its position, but it will not move beyond single digit in the 60 member Assembly. The Trinamool Congress has been working hard to push itself into power, but it will fall short as it is largely perceived to be an outsider,” Peoples Pulse – Big TV exit poll said.
“Considering that Meghalaya is a small State particularly in the sense that constituencies have a small number of voters with a large number of parties seeking their indulgence. Therefore, even a margin of 50 to 100 votes makes a huge difference not just between winning and losing, but even if a party splits that many votes, it would influence who the winner would be. For this reason, we have increased the margin of seats in our prediction of seats,” it added.
According to Peoples Pulse-Big TV exit poll, the main issues in the elections are price rise, unemployment, charges of corruption, illegal coal mining and inadequate infrastructure.
“During campaigning, all political parties, including the NPP’s five allies in the government, attacked the NPP on the corruption issue,” the exit poll said.
It also said that the strength of the NPP is that it has the money to fight the elections. Had corruption not been such an issue, the NPP would have been much more formidable.
“The Trinamool Congress emerged as a force after 12 Congress MLAs joined the party. Former chief minister Mukul Sangma, without any doubt, is the second most charismatic leader in Garo Hills after P A Sangma. He speaks many languages and can easily connect with different communities. The downside is that TMC carries the ‘outsiders’ tag. It could not make any major inroads into Khasi and Jaintia Hills regions which have altogether 36 of the State’s 60 seats,” the exit poll said.
It also said that what is hampering the BJP immensely is that it is perceived as an anti-Christian party in a Christian-majority State. Candidates will win based on their individual merit and popularity, not because they are with BJP.
“The contest is between NPP and Trinamool Congress in Garo Hills. Unlike in Khasi and Jaintia Hills where the 36 seats invariably went to multiple parties in past elections, the Garo Hills is known as a region that largely votes for the ruling party or the main opposition party. NPP and Trinamool Congress are the two principal parties in Garo Hills. Success here will decide which of them will lead the government,” the Peoples Pulse exit poll concluded.
