Who will win the 2024 race to the Lok Sabha? Nobody knows. However, one thing is clear that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “Ab Ki Baar 400 Paar” (This time the target is 400) slogan may not prove to be true. There is no strong antipathy against the Modi government, so most feel that the electorate may give Modi another chance to form the government. But then there is no strong pro-incumbency feel either. The kind of massive majority BJP-led NDA enjoys today, may not be increased or repeatable. Rather it may go down a little. The BJP-led NDA has already got its maximum seats from all its areas of influence. It can get extra seats from southern and eastern regions but there the regional satraps have their sway.
No wonder Modi is striving very hard to make inroads in the southern states where BJP hopes to gain seats to further its tally. But the INDIA bloc has been underlining the deep north-south divides in its attempt to consolidate the anti-BJP votes in its fold and trying to portray BJP as only a north-Indian party that does not understand the southern ethos. On the face of it, it does not seem that the BJP is likely to get over 400 which may have been put as a target more to enthuse the party workers rather than anything else. The whole question is even though Prime Minister Modi is holding innumerable rallies all over the country with a large turnout of people coming to hear what he has to say, will those huge rallies turn into votes for BJP?
Today INDIA bloc has states like Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Kerala, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, West Bengal. It is also a formidable force and it’s at its own risk that the ruling BJP can take it easy by dubbing the entire opposition alliance as a conglomerate of corrupt parties. BJP must not take its INDIA bloc lightly because this time round, the Opposition feels that it is a “do or die” situation and has been assiduously trying to put its house in order. Eventually, politics all comes down to a question of perception. Which party’s argument is bought by the public at large is going to be successful.
With no wave being there and people being urged to vote Modi for the third time, the common voter would like to know how Modi’s ten years government had improved his life. Whether the great achievements of the country in the economic front or holding G-20 summit or putting Chandrayaan on the Moon has made any difference to his life beset with problems of unemployment, rampant price rise and inability to meet the daily needs. Have common poor people who form the majority of the voters improved their living conditions? Are they sufficiently financially empowered that they could fulfill all their needs?
