As the Narendra Modi government embarks on its new term, it faces the critical task of reassessing its policy towards the People’s Republic of China. The events of its previous term from 2019 to 2024 underscore the complexities: China’s assertiveness pushed India to the brink, highlighting significant power dynamics within Asia, particularly South Asia.
The legacy of unilateralism from Chairman Mao Zedong’s Communist Party of China has persisted through his successors, evident in Xi Jinping’s actions towards India from 2019 to 2024. This echoes historical parallels when Mao’s actions in the 1950s and 1962 mirrored the challenges faced by India’s leaders, including Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru. Once again, history has repeated itself, presenting profound challenges for India in the 21st century.
Nehru, characterised by his liberal ideals and visionary leadership, faced significant challenges, notably his handling of China. However, evaluating Nehru solely through this lens would be incomplete, as his tenure also witnessed monumental successes. Just as Mahatma Gandhi pioneered non-violence to end British rule, Nehru’s principles of “non-alignment” and “Panchsheel” made lasting contributions to global diplomacy. India continues to uphold these principles with vigour, exemplified recently during the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Amidst complex global dynamics and challenges from China and Western pressures, India’s adept diplomatic corps in South Block has steered the nation adeptly, maintaining stability and strategic clarity.
When engaging with China, one must remain wary of its history of strategic deception. Mao Zedong’s tactic of “one step backward and two steps forward” remains relevant, indicating the need for vigilance and foresight in diplomatic engagements. Similarly, Deng Xiaoping’s advice to “hide your intent and bide your time” reflects China’s longstanding approach to international relations, rooted in a tradition of secrecy and caution. India must navigate this landscape with astuteness and strategic acumen to effectively counter Chinese diplomatic maneuvers in the present era.
Facing significant resistance from both Western and Eastern fronts concerning trade, military tensions, and strategic hotspots, China’s assertive leadership under Xi Jinping has resorted to unexpected tactics. Out of necessity and frustration, Xi Jinping recently invoked Nehru’s 1954 “Panchsheel” (Five Principles of Peaceful Co-existence) in global discourse. However, this gesture notably omitted crediting Nehru for originating these influential principles. This maneuver underscores China’s current challenges and its strategic responses amidst heightened international scrutiny and opposition.
During India’s parliamentary elections, two Chinese diplomats, stationed in Delhi and Kolkata, launched a strategic charm offensive aimed at influencing public opinion and cultivating a favourable pro-China sentiment. Their objective was to exert pressure on India by leveraging internal divisions, a tactic reminiscent of historical instances where internal conflicts facilitated victories for external adversaries. This approach reflects China’s calculated efforts to influence and maneuver amidst India’s political landscape.
Rather than cataloging the numerous ways China has impacted India negatively, the focus should be on India’s strategic reorientation to effectively counter Han aggression. Central to the Han psyche are historical grievances dating back to the Opium War (1839-1842) and subsequent events such as the burning of the Royal Summer Palace in 1860, the Boxer Rebellion of 1898, and the perceived humiliations at the hands of foreign powers who confronted the imperial authority of the “Son of Heaven” residing within Beijing’s Forbidden City. Understanding these historical undercurrents is crucial as India shapes its policies to navigate and mitigate current geopolitical challenges.
The concept of “revenge” resonates deeply within the psyche of China’s 1.5 billion citizens. India must remain steadfast and not succumb to intimidation or false promises propagated by external influences or internal lobbyists aligned with China’s interests. These pressures often serve private agendas that may not align with India’s broader interests, impacting its 1.4 billion citizens. It’s crucial for India to maintain clarity and resilience in navigating these complex dynamics.
Hence, India must firmly insist on restoring its territorial status quo from April-May 2020 as an absolute non-negotiable priority. The inviolability and sovereignty of our territory stand as paramount principles for any sovereign nation. It’s reassuring that India’s External Affairs Minister has consistently emphasised this stance publicly. Despite the repetitive assertions from China’s assertive “wolf-warrior” diplomats, normalising relations cannot proceed without a clear resolution of territorial disputes.
Beijing’s attempt to portray “convergence over divergence” between India and China serves as a thinly veiled strategy to facilitate increased Chinese influence under the guise of economic cooperation. New Delhi must remain vigilant against such tactics to avoid repeating historical mistakes, ensuring that current leaders do not face harsh judgments akin to those faced by Nehru in 1962.
India-China bilateral trade remains severely imbalanced, with a staggering deficit exceeding $100 billion that cannot be overlooked or resolved overnight. To address this, decisive steps are imperative. The Commerce Ministry must take proactive measures to ban the importation of non-essential Chinese goods, which often yield excessive profits for Indian traders through substantial markups in the domestic market. Additionally, imposing substantial tariffs and non-tariff barriers on Chinese imports is essential to rebalance trade relations and safeguard India’s economic interests effectively. These actions are crucial in tackling the persistent challenges posed by the current trade dynamics between the two nations.
Today, the WTO faces significant limitations in mediating disputes among major economies. Recent actions by the United States, imposing 100 per cent tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, followed by the European Union’s imposition of up to 38.4 tariff import duties, reflect a broader trend. Western nations are increasingly shielding their industries from aggressive Chinese competition fueled by cheap products. India must acknowledge this stark reality: the era of unchecked globalisation may be waning. China’s dominant economic influence poses a formidable challenge to the West, and India must prepare for potential economic pressures as the next target of Chinese economic strategies.
The growing global resistance against Beijing is a significant economic challenge for China. India must closely monitor this evolving situation. Regrettably, India has become overly reliant on inexpensive Chinese goods and raw materials. Reports suggest that certain Indian companies are at risk of collapse without the oversight of imported Chinese managers, which is concerning. This situation raises questions about the priorities and long-term sustainability of such practices. Are some individuals, driven solely by profit, overlooking broader strategic concerns? India must carefully consider its direction and not be swayed by short-term gains that could jeopardise its economic resilience and sovereignty.
It’s imperative for the South Block to take decisive action to prevent further penetration of the Chinese influence in India. Highlighting the gravity of the situation, a government response to a parliamentary query in December 2022 revealed that nearly 3,560 Indian companies have Chinese directors, with 174 Chinese companies registered in India. These figures underscore the need for vigilant oversight and prompt measures to safeguard India’s national interests from any potential compromise.
(The writer can be reached at dipakkurmiglpltd@gmail.com)
