On June 4, Prime Minister Narendra Modi secured an electoral triumph that, akin to the victory of King Pyrrhus of Epirus over the Romans in 279 BC, could be dubbed as pyrrhic. Like Pyrrhus, who endured significant losses despite his success, Modi’s victory came at a steep cost, leaving his political landscape altered, perhaps irreversibly.
In a dramatic turn of events following the Battle of Gangwana in 1741, the Marwar Rathores clashed with the combined forces of Jaipur and its Mughal overlord, led by Jai Singh. The battlefield, situated at Kunchagaon near Pushkar, witnessed the formidable imperial army, boasting over 40,000 soldiers and its legendary artillery, positioned to impose terms on the rulers of Jodhpur and Nagaur. However, it was Bakht Singh of Nagaur and his modest cavalry, numbering around a thousand, who faced the daunting task.
Undeterred, Bakht Singh and his horsemen charged headlong into the imperial ranks, swiftly penetrating Jai Singh’s gun line. The Rathores, though outnumbered, carved a path through the Jaipur forces, inflicting heavy casualties. Despite their significant losses, their relentless assault shook the morale of the Mughal army. Subsequently, the imperial forces began to crumble, marking a turning point in the conflict. Jai Singh, never able to regain his former vigour, succumbed to the weight of defeat, passing away just two years later.
Despite securing victory in the 2024 elections, the BJP-led NDA found its aspirations for establishing a Hindutva theocracy impeded by formidable opposition aligned with the principles of the Constitution. The relentless push towards a Hindi-Hindutva dominance, endangering India’s federal structure, encountered setbacks, particularly in its core region, the Gangetic heartland. Here, the powerful alliance of Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi proved instrumental in derailing the BJP’s momentum led by the formidable Modi-Yogi Adityanath “double engine” campaign.
The recent election outcomes served to humble Modiji, significantly reducing his margin of victory in Varanasi from 4.93 lakh votes in 2019 to just 1.52 lakhs this time. Interestingly, Rahul Gandhi experienced a reversal of fortunes, triumphing in Rae Bareli by over 3.9 lakh votes after facing humiliation in Amethi, another stronghold of the Gandhi family, in the previous election cycle. This marks a significant shift in fortunes. Modi’s decline appears inevitable, challenged by both biological aging and historical circumstances. His demeanour at the BJP’s “victory” gathering seemed strained and artificial.
Despite attempting to captivate the audience with his customary blend of exaggeration and selective truths, his efforts fell short of inspiring his loyal supporters. Take, for example, Modi’s claim of India becoming the world’s second-largest manufacturer of mobile phones. However, this assertion only scratches the surface of reality. While India indeed assembles mobile phones worth Rs. 4.4 lakh crores, the actual value addition is a mere 16 per cent, contrasting starkly with China’s production, which boasts almost 100 per cent value addition.
Similarly, India’s exports of diamonds and jewelry are substantial, yet the value addition remains disproportionately low. Even in the case of petroleum products, where India exports over $70 billion worth, largely from the Reliance refinery in Jamnagar, the contribution to the national economy is minimal. These figures reflect Modi’s penchant for prioritising grandiose and visible initiatives, raising the pertinent question: what is the true national benefit derived from such endeavours?
In a similar vein, Modiji showcased the sleek and modern Vande Bharat Express trains, emphasising their upgraded features. However, the reality remains stark: over 95 per cent of passengers continue to endure crowded and dilapidated train compartments, often lacking even basic amenities. Despite this, Modiji sought to persuade the populace that their quality of life had improved. Yet, perceptions of living standards are inherently subjective. One can’t help but wonder how a passenger crammed into a typical second-class bogie perceives the contrast when witnessing another traveler zip by in the luxurious confines of a Vande Bharat Express.
Back on April 19, I expressed skepticism about the longevity of the Modi express, foreseeing its journey stalling before reaching the halfway mark. However, the relentless bombardment of Modi-centric positivity by electronic media, coupled with a deluge of fabricated polls, inadvertently sealed Modi’s fate by setting the bar at over 400 seats as the new standard. Mr. Modi himself contributed to these inflated expectations by dismissively relegating Rahul Gandhi to a mere 50 seats and displaying a similar lack of grace towards Akhilesh Yadav, M K Stalin, Mamata Banerjee, and Tejashwi Yadav. Yet, they all fought back, gradually chipping away at his once unassailable position.
Over the last 82 days, Mr. Modi crisscrossed the nation aboard his IAF Boeing 777, addressing a staggering 206 rallies, prompting many, including myself, to ponder whether the country was operating on autopilot. Rarely in the annals of global politics has a leader dedicated such an immense amount of time to campaigning. While a leader’s podium is typically seen as a platform for preaching, persuading, and motivating, Modiji often chose to utilise it for hurling political barbs at his adversaries. Even his claims of achievements were often inflated. In the end, more voters saw through his rhetoric than remained staunch believers.
Modi’s ascent in the political arena has been fueled by a penchant for exaggeration, but the outcomes of this week’s elections serve as a stark reminder that the bubble of exaggeration has finally burst. According to its own projections, the Modi-led BJP fell significantly short of its declared objective by more than 150 seats (“Ab ki Baar Char Sau Paar”). The BJP witnessed a decline in seat tallies across its traditional strongholds, with notable increases only in Odisha and Telangana. While the BJP still retains its status as the largest party in Parliament, its influence has been notably diminished. Within the party, Narendra Modi’s authority has also been curtailed.
Despite the BJP’s historical reputation for robust internal democracy, characterised by spirited debates and discussions, the past decade saw a stifling of such discourse under Mr. Modi’s autocratic leadership alongside a cadre of anonymous and inexperienced aides. However, this era of dictatorial rule appears to be waning. The party now realises the risks associated with such a path. While it may not fully revert to the days of Atal Behari Vajpayee and L K Advani, there are indications that the dominance of Modi and Shah will give way to a more collaborative leadership involving voices like Nitin Gadkari and Rajnath Singh. This shift may serve to temper Modi’s arrogance with a newfound sense of humility.
The newly formed NDA faces a precarious reliance on two of the most infamous political flip-floppers on the national stage: Nitish Kumar and N. Chandrababu Naidu. Both figures have vehemently opposed Narendra Modi in the past, only to now find themselves in a position where they must collaborate to challenge the BJP’s dominance.
With JDU holding 12 seats and TDP 16, their combined numerical strength necessitates a coordinated approach to disrupt the BJP’s agenda. While it’s uncertain what political events will align their actions, their presence will undoubtedly loom over Modi’s leadership, potentially prompting him to adopt a more conciliatory demeanor. This shift could prove beneficial for India’s governance, fostering a more inclusive and collaborative approach to decision-making.
(The writer can be reached at dipakkurmiglpltd@gmail.com)
