British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has finally announced July 4 as the date of the upcoming general election in the United Kingdom (UK) riding high on a stronger-than-expected economic performance in the first quarter of March that saw the country exit a shallow recession. Sunak made this surprise announcement by declaring early elections on July 4, much before he completed three years in office. Opinion polls have predicted a record drubbing of the Conservatives to the opposition Labour, ending 14 years of Tory rule in the UK.
Sunak’s surprise decision alarmed many Conservative leaders, as many MPs are fearful of losing their seats and a washout due to the anti-incumbency that has built up after 14 years of the party being in charge, with a rising cost-of-living crisis and Sunak’s failure to keep up with his poll promises. Healthcare, the environment and climate change are also key issues that will influence the July 4 election. Questions still remain over the UK’s economic growth and Sunak’s Rwanda deportation policy, which is believed to have influenced his decision to call for early elections.
For one, Britain has suffered from high inflation and poor economic growth for several years, although the Conservatives succeeded in halving inflation after a peak in October 2022. The issue of immigration has also hurt the Conservatives as thousands of asylum seekers have crossed the English Channel in risky boats, and the signature Tory policy of deporting some of these migrants has been criticised by members of Sunak’s own party and human rights organisations. These issues have made the upcoming election in the UK a high-stakes one, with a long road ahead of Sunak.
People throughout the United Kingdom will choose all 650 members of the House of Commons on July 4 for a term of up to five years. For India, the new elections in the UK will have an impact. Both countries have been working on a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) for a long time since before Sunak came to power, as part of efforts to boost bilateral trade currently worth 38.1 billion pounds per year. The FTA talks began in January 2022 with Diwali 2022 set as the initial deadline by Johnson.
Under the Sunak-led Tory government, no new timelines were set for the FTA but both sides were looking to get things signed off before a general election year in India and the UK in 2024. There are 26 chapters in the agreement, including goods, services, investments, and intellectual property rights. Sunak’s shock poll date announcement has skewered any prospect of the finalisation of the long-awaited and much-anticipated FTA with India by a Conservative government. The Labour Party, widely expected to form the next government in the UK, has maintained steadfast support for such a deal, subject to an examination of the ‘fine print’ once it comes into office.
