Eleven years ago, Bangladesh felt the intense wave of student activism during the Shahbag movement, named after the prominent intersection of two major roads in Dhaka. Dubbed the Bangla Spring, this uprising drew parallels with the Arab Spring — a series of revolutionary waves that surged through Egypt and other nations like Tunisia, Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Bahrain from 2010 to 2012. This era of upheaval led to the fall of several leaders and reshaped the political landscapes across the Arab world.
The Shahbag movement did not succeed in toppling Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, and the ongoing quota protests—which have intensified over the past ten days, particularly after the Supreme Court’s intervention on Sunday—are unlikely to change that. However, the intense backlash from students, sparked by a severe government crackdown that reportedly claimed the lives of at least 100 young people, serves as a stern warning to Sheikh Hasina.
This unrest is a clear signal that Sheikh Hasina must proceed cautiously if she hopes to complete her fourth term in office. Her neighbouring countries should also be alert, as they might face unforeseen challenges in the future. India, in particular, needs to be aware of its role in exacerbating the situation that is pushing Bangladesh to the edge.
The quota issue has been simmering since 2018, but it didn’t have to escalate into a clash between students and the Prime Minister. Both sides actually shared the same viewpoint: that the quota system should be abolished. In 1972, the newly-formed government of Bangladesh established a quota system to honour the sacrifices of the freedom fighters who fought for independence from Pakistan in 1971. The policy allocated 30 per cent of civil service jobs to the children of these “mukti joddhas” (freedom fighters), 10 per cent for women, another 10 per cent for residents of underdeveloped districts, and approximately 5 per cent for ethnic minorities and individuals with disabilities. This amounted to a total reservation of 55 per cent.
By 2018, student protests against the quota system had intensified, prompting Sheikh Hasina to eliminate it through a government order. The situation remained stable until 2021, when a petition to restore the quotas was filed with the Dhaka High Court. On June 5 of this year, the High Court ruled in favour of reinstating the quota system. The government appealed to the Supreme Court, which was initially scheduled to review the case on August 7. However, due to escalating violence, the Supreme Court addressed the issue earlier on July 21 and ruled in line with both the protesting students and the government’s stance: the quota system should be abolished.
However, by July 14, the situation had already spiraled into chaos. On July 14, Sheikh Hasina held a press conference upon her return from China, where she had met with President Xi Jinping. The main topic of discussion was the Teesta water dispute between Dhaka and Delhi. When asked if China had proposed assistance with resolving the issue, Sheikh Hasina confirmed that they had. However, given that the river originates in India and that India’s consent is crucial for determining water allocation, she suggested that it would be more practical for India to manage the project itself.
The focus on Sheikh Hasina’s shift toward India rather than China overshadowed an earlier question about the quota agitation. Her response to this question sparked the intense turmoil of the past ten days. Sheikh Hasina questioned the anger directed at the freedom fighters, asking, “Why such hostility towards the mukti joddhas? Some argue that their descendants should not benefit from the quota system. So, do they prefer that only the children of the razakars receive such advantages? What’s the fault of those who risked everything, enduring harsh conditions and fighting for our country’s freedom?”
In Bangladesh, the term “razakar” carries an extremely negative connotation, far worse than calling someone anti-national in India. It broadly translates to “traitor” and refers to a paramilitary force established in May 1971 by General Tikka Khan of the Pakistan Army just before the Bangladesh Liberation War. The razakars were notorious for their brutality and are associated with what Bangladesh considers “war crimes.”
Given the students’ long-standing frustration with the quota system and their eagerness for justice, Sheikh Hasina’s comments only fueled their anger. They took to the streets of Dhaka in protest, chanting: “Who are you? Who am I? Razakar. Razakar. Who says so? Who says so? The autocrat. The autocrat.” This marked the beginning of a significant clash.
Another widely reported error by the government related to the violence was also making headlines. Rather than letting the police handle the student protests, the ruling Awami League allegedly deployed its student wing, the Chhatra League, to violently suppress the demonstrations. This intervention resulted in horrific clashes, with reports indicating that up to 130 people have died. In response, the Supreme Court has reduced the quota for freedom fighters’ families from 30 percent to 5 per cent, and allocated 2 per cent for other minority groups. Does this mean that the crisis in Bangladesh is finally coming to an end?
It’s highly unlikely that the unrest will subside soon. The students have insisted that all detained protesters be released before they will end their demonstrations. Opposition parties such as the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami have reportedly joined the protests, ensuring that the disruption will persist, as it serves as a political setback for Sheikh Hasina. Additionally, there is the pressing issue of millions of unemployed youth. Regardless of changes to the quota system, until this fundamental problem is resolved, Bangladesh’s students are likely to continue their unrest and occasional uprisings.
Sheikh Hasina faces a challenging situation, with significant work ahead. India’s primary concern is maintaining stability in the region. From its perspective, Hasina has effectively managed to keep extremist elements at bay over the past 15 years and is seen as an essential leader. This scenario means India is unlikely to gain widespread popularity in Bangladesh anytime soon. Many in Bangladesh view India not as a friendly neighbour but as a domineering figure, supporting Hasina despite her controversial election victories. With ongoing issues with its northern and western neighbours, India is focused on ensuring that, regardless of the quota system, peace and stability are preserved on its eastern border.
(The writer can be reached at dipakkurmiglpltd@gmail.com)
